College of Agronomy and Agricultural Engineering, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng, 252059, China.
College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, 730070, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Apr;30(16):47561-47579. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-25338-5. Epub 2023 Feb 6.
The considerable variation in structures and functions of different ecosystems leads to highly variable ecosystem service values (ESVs). Consequently, the accurate quantification of ESVs can better assess and reflect impacts of land use and cover changes (LUCC) on ecosystem services. In the land use simulations of this study, a CA-Markov model was chosen and nine factors affecting land use change were evaluated, followed by the construction of a multi-criteria evaluation method to simulate land use scenarios between 2025 and 2030 on the Loess Plateau. Six key ecological indicators (economy, water production, net primary plant productivity, habitat quality, accessibility, and soil conservation) were used to correct for spatiotemporal heterogeneity within the terrestrial ESV equivalent weight table for China to obtain an ESV equivalent weight factor table that is applicable to the Loess Plateau. Using the newly corrected table, ESVs for the Loess Plateau region were estimated between 1995 and 2030, and the impacts of LUCC on ESVs were analyzed. The Kappa values for the 2015 land use simulation results were 0.80 and 0.83, which were greater than 0.75, indicating that the CA-Markov model simulations were accurate. Throughout the study period, the largest increases in land use type area were for built-up areas and forest lands, with built-up areas primarily derived from conversions of cultivated lands and grasslands, and forest land increases primarily coming from conversion of grasslands. ESVs increased overall by 933.97 × 10 yuan and 312.86 × 10 yuan from 1995 to 2018 and 2018 to 2030, respectively. The three largest contributors to ecosystem services among land use types were moderate grasses, shrublands, and dense grasslands. In conclusion, ESVs for the Loess Plateau steadily increased year by year from 1995 to 2030, indicating that ecological restoration projects played major roles in improving the stability and sustainability of the region's ecosystems.
不同生态系统的结构和功能存在较大差异，导致生态系统服务价值（ESV）高度可变。因此，准确量化 ESV 可以更好地评估和反映土地利用和覆被变化（LUCC）对生态系统服务的影响。在本研究的土地利用模拟中，选择了 CA-Markov 模型，并评估了影响土地利用变化的九个因素，随后构建了一个多准则评价方法，以模拟黄土高原 2025 年至 2030 年的土地利用情景。选择了六个关键生态指标（经济、水资源生产、净初级植物生产力、生境质量、可达性和土壤保持），以纠正中国陆地生态系统服务当量权重表中的时空异质性，获得适用于黄土高原的生态系统服务当量权重因子表。利用新校正的表格，估计了 1995 年至 2030 年黄土高原地区的 ESV，并分析了 LUCC 对 ESV 的影响。2015 年土地利用模拟结果的 Kappa 值分别为 0.80 和 0.83，大于 0.75，表明 CA-Markov 模型模拟准确。在整个研究期间，土地利用类型面积增加最多的是建设用地和林地，建设用地主要来源于耕地和草地的转化，林地的增加主要来自草地的转化。从 1995 年到 2018 年和 2018 年到 2030 年，ESV 分别增加了 933.97×10 元和 312.86×10 元。土地利用类型中对生态系统服务贡献最大的三种是中等草地、灌丛和密草丛。总之，1995 年至 2030 年黄土高原的 ESV 逐年稳步增长，表明生态恢复项目在提高该地区生态系统的稳定性和可持续性方面发挥了重要作用。
