Spatiotemporal heterogeneity correction in land ecosystem services and its value assessment: a case study of the Loess Plateau of China.

The considerable variation in structures and functions of different ecosystems leads to highly variable ecosystem service values (ESVs). Consequently, the accurate quantification of ESVs can better assess and reflect impacts of land use and cover changes (LUCC) on ecosystem services. In the land use simulations of this study, a CA-Markov model was chosen and nine factors affecting land use change were evaluated, followed by the construction of a multi-criteria evaluation method to simulate land use scenarios between 2025 and 2030 on the Loess Plateau. Six key ecological indicators (economy, water production, net primary plant productivity, habitat quality, accessibility, and soil conservation) were used to correct for spatiotemporal heterogeneity within the terrestrial ESV equivalent weight table for China to obtain an ESV equivalent weight factor table that is applicable to the Loess Plateau. Using the newly corrected table, ESVs for the Loess Plateau region were estimated between 1995 and 2030, and the impacts of LUCC on ESVs were analyzed. The Kappa values for the 2015 land use simulation results were 0.80 and 0.83, which were greater than 0.75, indicating that the CA-Markov model simulations were accurate. Throughout the study period, the largest increases in land use type area were for built-up areas and forest lands, with built-up areas primarily derived from conversions of cultivated lands and grasslands, and forest land increases primarily coming from conversion of grasslands. ESVs increased overall by 933.97 × 10 yuan and 312.86 × 10 yuan from 1995 to 2018 and 2018 to 2030, respectively. The three largest contributors to ecosystem services among land use types were moderate grasses, shrublands, and dense grasslands. In conclusion, ESVs for the Loess Plateau steadily increased year by year from 1995 to 2030, indicating that ecological restoration projects played major roles in improving the stability and sustainability of the region's ecosystems.