Opportunities to Interrupt Transmission of Enteropathogens of Poultry Origin in Maputo, Mozambique: A Transmission Model Analysis.

BACKGROUND

The burden of diarrheal diseases remains high among children in low-income countries. Enteropathogens are challenging to control because they are transmitted via multiple pathways. Chickens are an important animal protein source, but live chickens and their products are often highly contaminated with enteropathogens.

OBJECTIVES

We conducted this study to ) understand the contribution of multiple transmission pathways to the force of infection of spp. and nontyphoidal spp., ) quantify the potential impact of reducing each pathway on human infection, and ) quantify hypothesized pathway reduction from the context of Maputo, Mozambique.

METHODS

We developed transmission models for and that captured person-to-person, water-to-person, food-to-person, soil-to-person, animal-to-person, and all-other-sources-to-person in an urban, low-income setting in Mozambique. We calibrated these models using prevalence data from Maputo, Mozambique and estimates of attributable fraction of transmission pathways for the region. We simulated the prevalence of human infection after reducing transmission through each pathway.

RESULTS

Simulation results indicated that if foodborne transmission were reduced by 90%, the prevalence of and infection would decline by [52.2%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 39.7, 63.8] and (46.9%; 95% CrI: 39, 55.4), respectively. Interruption of any other pathway did not have a substantial impact. Combined with survey and microbiology data, if contamination of broiler chicken meat at informal markets in Maputo could be reduced by 90%, the total infection of and could be reduced by 21% (16-26%) and 12% (10-13%), respectively.

DISCUSSION

Our transmission models showed that the foodborne transmission has to be reduced to control enteropathogen infections in our study site, and likely in other similar contexts, but mitigation of this transmission pathway has not received sufficient attention. Our model can serve as a tool to identify effective mitigation opportunities to control zoonotic enteropathogens. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12314.