Begon F, Lockhart A M, Métreau J M, Dhumeaux D
Med Inform (Lond). 1979 Jan-Mar;4(1):35-42. doi: 10.3109/14639237909044358.
A computer-aided system has been developed for the diagnosis of disease of the liver and biliary system. The program is based on the use of 30 indicants, all of which are available within six hours after patient's admission: 18 of them are clinical signs, 12 are laboratory parameters including routine liver-function tests. To date, the program concerns 52 hepato-biliary diseases. From the analysis of the 30 items collected in any patient, the diagnoses are computed according to Bayes' theorem and printed by decreasing order of probability. The performance of the program was tested using records of patients with fully proven diagnosis. The first diagnosis given by the computer was correct in 57 per cent of the cases. In 80 per cent, the right diagnosis was among the first four proposed. When the performance of the model was compared to that of physicians, the number of correct answers was roughly the same for the computer and for the specialists in hepatology; in contrast, the computer's responses were far better than those of general practitioners. These results demonstrate the efficiency of the program for the diagnosis of hepato-bilitary diseases and its potential interest for helping clinicians in decision-making.
已开发出一种用于诊断肝脏和胆道系统疾病的计算机辅助系统。该程序基于30项指标，所有这些指标在患者入院后6小时内均可获得：其中18项为临床体征，12项为实验室参数，包括常规肝功能检查。迄今为止，该程序涉及52种肝胆疾病。根据收集到的任何患者的30项指标进行分析，按照贝叶斯定理计算诊断结果，并按概率降序打印。使用诊断完全得到证实的患者记录对该程序的性能进行了测试。计算机给出的第一个诊断在57%的病例中是正确的。在80%的情况下，正确诊断在前四个建议中。当将该模型的性能与医生的性能进行比较时，计算机和肝病专家的正确答案数量大致相同；相比之下，计算机的回答远优于全科医生。这些结果证明了该程序在诊断肝胆疾病方面的效率及其对帮助临床医生进行决策的潜在价值。
