Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Environmental Management Research Institute, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
Environ Int. 2023 Nov;181:108310. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108310. Epub 2023 Nov 7.
Air conditioning (AC) presents a viable means of tackling the ill-effects of heat on human health. However, AC releases additional anthropogenic heat outdoors, and this could be detrimental to human health, especially in urban communities. This study determined the excess heat-related mortality attributable to anthropogenic heat from AC use under various projected global warming scenarios in seven Japanese cities. The overall protection from AC use was also measured.
Daily average 2-meter temperatures in the hottest month of August from 2000 to 2010 were modeled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with BEP+BEM (building effect parameterization and building energy model). Risk functions for heat-mortality associations were generated with and without AC use from a two-stage time series analysis. We coupled simulated August temperatures and heat-mortality risk functions to estimate averted deaths and unavoidable deaths from AC use.
Anthropogenic heat from AC use slightly augmented the daily urban temperatures by 0.046 °C in Augusts of 2000-2010 and up to 0.181 °C in a future with 3 °C urban warming. This temperature rise was attributable to 3.1-3.5 % of heat-related deaths in Augusts of 2000-2010 under various urban warming scenarios. About 36-47 % of heat-related deaths could be averted by air conditioning use under various urban warming scenarios.
AC has a valuable protective effect from heat despite some unavoidable mortality from anthropogenic heat release. Overall, the use of AC as a major adaptive strategy requires careful consideration.
空调（AC）是应对高温对人体健康影响的可行手段。然而，空调在户外释放额外的人为热量，这可能对人类健康有害，尤其是在城市社区。本研究在七个日本城市的各种预测全球变暖情景下，确定了由于使用空调而产生的额外与热相关的人为热量导致的超额死亡。还测量了使用空调的整体保护作用。
使用天气研究和预报（WRF）模型与 BEP+BEM（建筑效应参数化和建筑能源模型）对 2000 年至 2010 年 8 月最热月的每日平均 2 米温度进行建模。使用两阶段时间序列分析生成有无空调使用的热-死亡率关联的风险函数。我们将模拟的 8 月温度和热-死亡率风险函数耦合起来，以估计由于使用空调而避免的死亡和不可避免的死亡。
在 2000-2010 年的 8 月，空调使用产生的人为热量使城市日平均温度升高了 0.046°C，而在城市变暖 3°C的未来，温度升高可达 0.181°C。在各种城市变暖情景下，这种温度升高归因于 2000-2010 年 8 月与热相关的死亡人数增加了 3.1-3.5%。在各种城市变暖情景下，空调的使用可以避免约 36-47%的与热相关的死亡。
尽管由于人为热量释放而导致一些不可避免的死亡，但空调具有宝贵的热保护作用。总体而言，作为主要适应策略的使用空调需要仔细考虑。
