Climate change adaptation stories: Co-creating climate services with reindeer herders in Finland.

Reindeer husbandry in the Arctic region is strongly affected by the local climate. Reindeer herders are used to coping with adverse weather, climate, and grazing conditions through autonomous adaptation. However, today's rapidly changing Arctic environment poses new challenges to the management of herding activities. Finding means for combining traditional and scientific knowledge without depriving any of the systems of its fundamental strengths is hence deemed necessary. In this work, we apply a transdisciplinary framework for knowledge co-production involving international researchers and reindeer herders from different cooperatives in northern Finland. Through 'climate change adaptation stories', we co-explore how climate predictions can inform herders' decision making during the herding season. Relevant decisions include the anticipation of summer harvest time, the inopportune periods of cold weather in spring, and insect harassment in summer. Despite their potential benefits for climate-sensitive decisions, climate predictions have seen limited uptake, mainly due to their probabilistic nature and lower quality compared with shorter-term weather forecasts. The analysis of two different adaptation stories shows that seasonal predictions of temperature for May and June can successfully advise about the likelihood of having an earlier than normal harvest. This information can be obtained up to three months in advance, helping herders to better arrange their time for other activities. Likewise, sub-seasonal predictions of temperature during April and May can be useful to anticipate the occurrence of backwinter episodes, which can support herders in deciding whether to feed reindeer in pens for longer, avoiding putting the survival of calves at risk. This study, which would benefit from co-evaluation in real world settings and consideration of additional adaptation stories, sets the basis for a successful co-production of climate services with Arctic reindeer herders. This research shows the potential to enhance the resilience of Polar regions, offering opportunities for adaptation while supporting the sustainability and culture of traditional practices of Arctic communities.