Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitario Severo Ochoa, Leganés, Spain.
Medical Surgical Unit of Respiratory Diseases, Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío, Seville, Spain.
Respiration. 2023;102(12):969-977. doi: 10.1159/000534276. Epub 2023 Nov 16.
Patterns of lung cancer (LC) mortality are important for planning health services and resource management.
We aimed to provide updated information (1982-2021) and project (LC) mortality rates in Spain (2022-2046).
We analysed data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute about mortality in LC (1982-2021), and we made predictions for the period 2022-2046.
In 2021, a total of 22,413 people died of LC, and for the period 2042-2046, the projected annual average was 25,549 deaths. In males, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) (overall) after an initial period of increase (1982-1996, 2.2%) declined until 2021 (-1.4% per year), and this decline is expected to continue in the future (-1.9% per year during the period 2022-2046), although the projected decline is slightly higher (-2.0% during the period 2022-2046). In men, ASMR (all ages) after an initial period of increase (1982-1996, 2.2%) declined until 2021 (-1.4% per year), and this decline is expected to continue in the future during the period 2022-2046. In women, both the overall and truncated rates (35-64) increase during the period 1982-2021 (4.1% and 6.0% per year, respectively), and projected rates showed that both will decrease during the period 2022-2046, although more markedly in the truncated rates (-1.9% per year) than in the overall rates (-0.5% per year).
Our projections show the magnitude of a steady upward trend in LC mortality among women in Spain that appears to be beginning to reverse from the current decade (similar to that observed for incidence).
肺癌死亡率模式对于规划卫生服务和资源管理非常重要。
我们旨在提供西班牙（2022-2046 年）最新的（1982-2021 年）肺癌死亡率信息和预测数据。
我们分析了西班牙国家统计局关于肺癌死亡率（1982-2021 年）的数据，并对 2022-2046 年期间进行了预测。
2021 年，共有 22413 人死于肺癌，预计 2042-2046 年期间每年的平均死亡人数为 25549 人。在男性中，整体年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）（总体）在经历了一个初始的上升期（1982-1996 年，2.2%）后，直到 2021 年一直呈下降趋势（每年下降 1.4%），预计未来还将继续下降（2022-2046 年期间每年下降 1.9%），尽管预计的下降幅度略高（2022-2046 年期间每年下降 2.0%）。在男性中，整体年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）（所有年龄段）在经历了一个初始的上升期（1982-1996 年，2.2%）后，直到 2021 年一直呈下降趋势（每年下降 1.4%），预计未来还将继续下降。在女性中，整体和截短率（35-64 岁）在 1982-2021 年期间均呈上升趋势（每年分别上升 4.1%和 6.0%），预计在 2022-2046 年期间，这两个指标都将下降，尽管截短率（每年下降 1.9%）的下降幅度比整体率（每年下降 0.5%）更为明显。
我们的预测显示，西班牙女性肺癌死亡率呈稳步上升趋势，且这一趋势似乎即将在当前十年开始逆转（与发病率的变化趋势相似）。
