[Lung cancer projections for Aragon (Spain)].

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE

Lung cancer has a high incidence in Aragon (Spain). Current measures, such as stopping smoking, may lead to a change in lung cancer trends. The objective of the study is to track the trends during the period of 15 years from 2008 to 2022.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

The mortality from all causes and that specific to lung cancer in Aragon between 1998 and 2007 was analysed using the statistical program MIAMOD/PIAMOD to estimate incidence rates, prevalence, and mortality until 2022.

RESULTS

Projections between 2008 and 2022 in men: adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 will decline from 64.62 to 58.49. The mortality will decline from 57.41 to 51.95, and the prevalence of 94.13 cases per 100,000 inhabitants to 88.45. In women, the adjusted incidence rate will increase from 8.3 to 10.58, with a mortality of 7.21 to 9.18 and a prevalence from 14.78 to 18.75.

CONCLUSIONS

These projections indicate that lung cancer incidence and mortality will remain a serious problem in the Aragon (Spain), and that a more intense primary prevention program is needed.