Bernal M, Souza D L B, Gómez F J, Gómez G J
Departamento de Medicina Preventiva, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza, España; Sección de Medicina Preventiva, Hospital Universitario Lozano Blesa, Zaragoza, España.
Semergen. 2013 May-Jun;39(4):191-6. doi: 10.1016/j.semerg.2012.09.004. Epub 2013 Jan 16.
Lung cancer has a high incidence in Aragon (Spain). Current measures, such as stopping smoking, may lead to a change in lung cancer trends. The objective of the study is to track the trends during the period of 15 years from 2008 to 2022.
The mortality from all causes and that specific to lung cancer in Aragon between 1998 and 2007 was analysed using the statistical program MIAMOD/PIAMOD to estimate incidence rates, prevalence, and mortality until 2022.
Projections between 2008 and 2022 in men: adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 will decline from 64.62 to 58.49. The mortality will decline from 57.41 to 51.95, and the prevalence of 94.13 cases per 100,000 inhabitants to 88.45. In women, the adjusted incidence rate will increase from 8.3 to 10.58, with a mortality of 7.21 to 9.18 and a prevalence from 14.78 to 18.75.
These projections indicate that lung cancer incidence and mortality will remain a serious problem in the Aragon (Spain), and that a more intense primary prevention program is needed.
肺癌在西班牙阿拉贡地区发病率较高。当前诸如戒烟等措施可能会导致肺癌发病趋势的改变。本研究的目的是追踪2008年至2022年这15年间的发病趋势。
使用统计程序MIAMOD/PIAMOD分析了1998年至2007年阿拉贡地区所有原因导致的死亡率以及肺癌特异性死亡率，以估计直至2022年的发病率、患病率和死亡率。
2008年至2022年男性的预测数据：每10万人的调整发病率将从64.62降至58.49。死亡率将从57.41降至51.95，每10万居民中的患病率将从94.13例降至88.45例。女性方面，调整发病率将从8.3升至10.58，死亡率从7.21升至9.18，患病率从14.78升至18.75。
这些预测表明，肺癌的发病率和死亡率在西班牙阿拉贡地区仍将是一个严重问题，需要更加强有力的一级预防计划。
