Department of Medical Oncology, Anxi County Hospital, No. 249-259, Hebin South Road, Fengcheng Town, Anxi County, 362400, Fujian Province, China.
Blood Purification Centre, Anxi County Hospital, Anxi County, 362400, Fujian Province, China.
Gen Thorac Cardiovasc Surg. 2024 Mar;72(3):192-201. doi: 10.1007/s11748-023-01987-8. Epub 2023 Nov 16.
This study, based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, aimed to report the long-term trend in mortality rates caused by risk factors for esophageal cancer (EC) in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the burden of EC mortality caused by these risk factors over the next 15 years.
We examined six risk factors that influenced EC mortality rates in China and their respective rankings. Furthermore, we analyzed the number of deaths and crude mortality rates (CMR) caused by these risk factors for both sexes and different age groups. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and the number of deaths across all age groups were also analyzed. Finally, we utilized the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to predict the trends in ASMR burden caused by these risk factors in the future.
From 1990 to 2019, the percentage changes in ASMR for EC caused by the six risk factors in China were as follows: smoking (- 33.4%), alcohol consumption (- 23.0%), low fruit intake (- 73.6%), low vegetable intake (- 96.0%), high Body Mass Index (BMI) (25.1%), and tobacco chewing (- 32.8%). In 2019, the top three risk factors contributing to EC ASMR in China were smoking, alcohol consumption, and high BMI. Overall, the ASMR for EC in China fluctuated and declined from 1990 to 2019. The most common risk factors for males were smoking and alcohol consumption, while low fruit intake and high BMI were the most common risk factors for females. The impact of these risk factors on EC mortality increased with age, except for the elderly population. BAPC analysis indicated that the influence of these risk factors on ASMR was expected to remain relatively stable in the next 15 years, suggesting a continued significant burden of EC.
The projected burden of EC mortality in China was expected to continue increasing steadily over the next 15 years, highlighting the pressing need for disease control measures. To alleviate this burden, targeted prevention and control policies addressing risk factors for EC such as smoking, alcohol consumption, and high BMI are necessary.
本研究基于全球疾病负担（GBD）数据，旨在报告 1990 年至 2019 年中国食管癌（EC）死亡风险因素的长期变化趋势，并预测未来 15 年这些风险因素导致的 EC 死亡率负担。
我们研究了影响中国 EC 死亡率的六个风险因素及其各自的排名。此外，我们分析了这些风险因素对不同性别和不同年龄组的死亡人数和粗死亡率（CMR）的影响。我们还分析了所有年龄组的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和死亡人数。最后，我们利用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测未来这些风险因素导致的 ASMR 负担的趋势。
1990 年至 2019 年，中国六种风险因素导致的 EC ASMR 百分比变化如下：吸烟（-33.4%）、饮酒（-23.0%）、水果摄入量低（-73.6%）、蔬菜摄入量低（-96.0%）、高体质指数（BMI）（25.1%）和咀嚼烟草（-32.8%）。2019 年，导致中国 EC ASMR 排名前三的风险因素为吸烟、饮酒和高 BMI。总体而言，1990 年至 2019 年中国 EC 的 ASMR 呈波动下降趋势。男性最常见的风险因素为吸烟和饮酒，而女性最常见的风险因素为低水果摄入量和高 BMI。这些风险因素对 EC 死亡率的影响随年龄增长而增加，除了老年人群。BAPC 分析表明，未来 15 年这些风险因素对 ASMR 的影响预计将保持相对稳定，这表明 EC 的负担将继续显著增加。
预计未来 15 年中国 EC 死亡率的负担将继续稳步增加，这突显了疾病控制措施的迫切需要。为了减轻这一负担，需要针对 EC 的风险因素，如吸烟、饮酒和高 BMI，制定有针对性的预防和控制政策。
