Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, 215000, China.
Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, 223001, China.
Clin Rheumatol. 2024 Sep;43(9):2799-2806. doi: 10.1007/s10067-024-07083-3. Epub 2024 Jul 29.
This study aims to evaluate the trends in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in China from 1990 to 2021 by analyzing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study and to predict the trends for the next 25 years. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated, and the estimated annual percentage change was used to illustrate differences in age distribution among various populations. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models were employed to forecast the burden of RA in China from 2022 to 2046. From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR of RA in China increased from 11.6 to 13.7, with a significantly higher ASIR in females than in males. Despite the increase in incidence, the ASMR related to RA decreased from 0.7 to 0.5. Predictions using the BAPC model indicate that the incidence of RA will continue to rise, with an expected ASIR of approximately 16.4 by 2046, and the total number of RA cases is projected to reach around 342,000. In terms of mortality, the ASMR is expected to decline to 0.3 by 2046, although the total number of deaths might reach about 40,000. The incidence of RA in China has significantly increased over the past 30 years. Although the incidence rate and the total number of RA cases may continue to rise in the future, the mortality rate of RA has been consistently declining. Key Points • Over the past 30 years, the incidence of RA in China has significantly increased; although the incidence rate and total number of cases may continue to rise, the mortality rate has been consistently declining.
这项研究旨在通过分析全球疾病负担（GBD）2021 研究的数据，评估 1990 年至 2021 年中国类风湿关节炎（RA）的趋势，并预测未来 25 年的趋势。计算了年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR），并使用估计的年百分变化来说明不同人群年龄分布的差异。采用年龄-时期-队列（APC）分析和贝叶斯 APC（BAPC）模型预测中国 2022 年至 2046 年 RA 的负担。1990 年至 2021 年，中国 RA 的 ASIR 从 11.6 增加到 13.7，女性的 ASIR 明显高于男性。尽管发病率有所上升，但与 RA 相关的 ASMR 从 0.7 下降到 0.5。使用 BAPC 模型进行预测表明，RA 的发病率将继续上升，预计到 2046 年 ASIR 将达到约 16.4，RA 病例总数预计将达到约 342000 例。在死亡率方面，预计到 2046 年 ASMR 将下降到 0.3，但死亡总数可能达到约 40000 例。中国 RA 的发病率在过去 30 年中显著增加。尽管未来发病率和 RA 总病例数可能继续上升，但 RA 的死亡率一直在持续下降。关键要点： • 在过去 30 年中，中国 RA 的发病率显著增加；尽管发病率和总病例数可能继续上升，但死亡率一直在持续下降。
