Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India.
Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2024 Jun;31(2):181-193. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2279967. Epub 2023 Nov 17.
Pivotal crash factors are investigated, and crash-severity model for the safety assessment at roundabouts and its vicinity in non-lane based heterogenous traffic is developed. An ordered-probit model was developed using crash-data collected between 2015-2019 for 20 roundabouts in India. The analysis revealed critical influencing parameters for determining the severity-level of crash outcomes at roundabouts, namely, inscribed-circle diameter, height of central island, number of circulatory lanes, presence of splitter island and median, posted-speed limit, type of collision, type of violation behaviour, collision partner, the pattern of collision, presence of road lane-marking, presence of street-light and age of victims. To precisely quantify the impact of each significant factor, marginal effects analysis was also carried out. The results show that the probability of fatal-injuries increased by 14.28% due to angle-collision, 15% for hit-pedestrians, 20.6% due to the pattern of collision and 15.60% due to the collision-partner, Whereas the probability of occurrence of grievous injury was the highest for rear-end with 17%, followed by sideswipe collision with 16% respectively. This study's findings can aid in developing effective remedies to reduce the crash severity for roundabouts road-users and updating the roundabout design standards, considering the safety perceptive.
研究关键碰撞因素，并为非车道基础异质交通中的环岛及其附近区域开发安全评估的碰撞严重度模型。使用 2015 年至 2019 年在印度 20 个环岛收集的碰撞数据开发了有序概率模型。分析揭示了确定环岛碰撞后果严重程度的关键影响参数，即内接圆直径、中心岛高度、回旋车道数量、分流岛和中央分隔带的存在、规定限速、碰撞类型、违规行为类型、碰撞伙伴、碰撞模式、道路车道标记的存在、路灯的存在和受害者的年龄。为了准确量化每个重要因素的影响，还进行了边际效应分析。结果表明，由于角度碰撞，致命伤害的概率增加了 14.28%；由于行人碰撞，增加了 15%；由于碰撞模式，增加了 20.6%；由于碰撞伙伴，增加了 15.60%。对于追尾碰撞，重伤发生的概率最高，为 17%，其次是侧面碰撞，为 16%。本研究的结果可以帮助制定有效的补救措施，以降低环岛道路使用者的碰撞严重程度，并考虑到安全因素，更新环岛设计标准。
