Ohlan Ramphul, Ohlan Anshu, Singh Rajbir, Kaur Sharanjeet
Institute of Management Studies and Research, Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak, Haryana, 124001, India.
Department of Education, Government of Haryana, Chandigarh, Haryana, India.
J Prev (2022). 2025 Feb;46(1):59-82. doi: 10.1007/s10935-024-00811-0. Epub 2024 Oct 15.
Road traffic injury (RTI) is one of the most common causes of accidental deaths in India. The study investigates the changes in trends in age-standardised RTI mortality rates in India by sex and age groups, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. The trend segments are estimated from 1990 to 2021 employing a joinpoint regression model. Additionally, the influence of age, time period, and birth cohort on mortality rate trends was assessed using the age-period-cohort model. Over the past 32 years, the RTI mortality rates have experienced multiple trend segments. RTI mortality rate in the ≤ 14-year-old population has declined remarkably, dropping from 5.71 (4.65 to 6.88) per lakh population in 1990 to 3.66 (3.01 to 4.35) per lakh population in 2010, and further declining to 1.98 (1.65 to 2.37) per lakh population in 2021. The study found a positive correlation between RTI mortality rates and age, with rates consistently lower for women compared to men across all age groups. The variation in RTI mortality rates across Indian states has widened over time, with the coefficient of variation increasing from 30.58% in 1990 to 32.36% in 2010, and further to 35.11% in 2021. Despite efforts, Indian states are unlikely to achieve the goal of halving RTI deaths by 2030, based on 2010 levels. To address this, road conditions and road safety policies aimed at preventing the incidence of RTIs should be further intensified.
道路交通伤害（RTI）是印度意外死亡的最常见原因之一。本研究利用2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究的数据，调查了印度按性别和年龄组划分的年龄标准化RTI死亡率趋势的变化。使用连接点回归模型估计了1990年至2021年的趋势段。此外，使用年龄-时期-队列模型评估了年龄、时期和出生队列对死亡率趋势的影响。在过去32年中，RTI死亡率经历了多个趋势段。14岁及以下人群的RTI死亡率显著下降，从1990年的每10万人5.71（4.65至6.88）降至2010年的每10万人3.66（3.01至4.35），并在2021年进一步降至每10万人1.98（1.65至2.37）。研究发现RTI死亡率与年龄呈正相关，在所有年龄组中，女性的死亡率始终低于男性。印度各邦RTI死亡率的差异随着时间的推移而扩大，变异系数从1990年的30.58%增加到2010年的32.36%，并在2021年进一步增加到35.11%。尽管做出了努力，但基于2010年的水平，印度各邦不太可能实现到2030年将RTI死亡人数减半的目标。为了解决这一问题，应进一步加强旨在预防RTI发生的道路状况和道路安全政策。
