Chen Fuzhong, Jiang Guohai
The Academy of China Open Economy Studies, University of International Business and Economics, 10 Huixin Dongjie, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China.
School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Dec;30(59):123022-123038. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-31005-6. Epub 2023 Nov 18.
This study explores the nonlinear relationship between digital service trade and carbon emissions using the data of 42 G20 countries from 2005 to 2021. It is concluded that this relationship appears to be an inverted U-shape. When the digital service trade is inadequate, this exacerbates carbon emissions. Only when the digital service trade is above this point does it become beneficial to environmentally sustainable development. Mediation analyses indicate that the digital service trade increases carbon emissions by increasing emissions from digital infrastructure and decreases them by optimizing the industrial structure and adopting low-carbon technologies. Furthermore, the nonlinear association is moderated by human capital. When human capital is insufficient, it is harder for the digital service trade to curb carbon emissions. Accordingly, this study is helpful to develop the digital service trade and achieving the goals of carbon peak and neutralization and the sustainable growth of the environment.
本研究利用2005年至2021年42个二十国集团国家的数据，探讨了数字服务贸易与碳排放之间的非线性关系。研究得出结论，这种关系呈现倒U形。当数字服务贸易不足时，这会加剧碳排放。只有当数字服务贸易超过这一点时，才有利于环境可持续发展。中介分析表明，数字服务贸易通过增加数字基础设施排放来增加碳排放，并通过优化产业结构和采用低碳技术来减少碳排放。此外，人力资本对这种非线性关联具有调节作用。当人力资本不足时，数字服务贸易更难抑制碳排放。因此，本研究有助于发展数字服务贸易，实现碳达峰、碳中和目标以及环境的可持续增长。
