Guzzo Karen Benjamin
Department of Sociology, 159 Hamilton Hall, #CB3210, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3210.
Popul Dev Rev. 2022 Dec;48(4):991-1026. doi: 10.1111/padr.12509. Epub 2022 Aug 5.
The United States has experienced a sustained fertility decline, with those currently in their childbearing years facing unique constraints. Drawing from the Theory of Conjunctural Action and the Narratives of the Future framework, this work considers how objective and subjective socioeconomic conditions, psychosocial characteristics, and perceptions of well-being are linked to mothers' and childless women's (a) prospective fertility intentions during the Great Recession, (b) realization of those intentions in the post-Recession period, and (c) fertility intentions toward the end of the reproductive years, using Waves IV and V of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. The results confirm the role of standard socioeconomic measures and also highlight the importance of subjective measures. In general, more advantaged women were more likely to intend to have (more) children at both waves and to have children between waves. Furthermore, women who already had children by the Great Recession were more likely than their childless peers to have a(nother) child in the post-Recession period. As this cohort approaches the end of its childbearing years, having unfulfilled fertility plans from earlier in the reproductive life course is a strong predictor of continuing to intend at least one birth.
美国经历了生育率的持续下降,目前处于生育年龄的人群面临着独特的限制。借鉴情境行动理论和未来叙事框架,本研究利用青少年到成人健康全国纵向研究的第四波和第五波数据,探讨客观和主观社会经济状况、心理社会特征以及幸福感认知如何与母亲和未育女性(a)在大衰退期间的预期生育意愿、(b)衰退后时期这些意愿的实现情况以及(c)生育后期的生育意愿相关联。研究结果证实了标准社会经济指标的作用,同时也凸显了主观指标的重要性。总体而言,更具优势的女性在两个阶段都更有可能打算生育(更多)子女,并且在两个阶段之间生育子女。此外,在大衰退之前就已育有子女的女性比未育同龄人在衰退后时期更有可能生育(另一个)子女。随着这一队列接近生育后期,在生育生命历程早期未实现的生育计划是继续打算至少生育一个孩子的有力预测因素。