University of South Carolina, Sloan College #321, Columbia, SC, 29208, USA.
Johns Hopkins University, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Room E4148, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.
Demography. 2020 Dec;57(6):2035-2045. doi: 10.1007/s13524-020-00929-w.
The U.S. period total fertility rate has declined steadily since the Great Recession, reaching 1.73 children in 2018, the lowest level since the 1970s. This pattern could mean that current childbearing cohorts will end up with fewer children than previous cohorts, or this same pattern could be an artifact of a tempo distortion if individuals are simply postponing births they plan to eventually have. In this research note, we use data on current parity and future intended births from the 2006-2017 National Survey of Family Growth to shed light on this issue. We find that total intended parity declined (from 2.26 in 2006-2010 to 2.16 children in 2013-2017), and the proportion intending to remain childless increased slightly. Decomposition indicates that the decline was not due to changes in population composition but rather changes in the subgroups' rates themselves. The decline in intended parity is particularly notable at young ages and among those who are Hispanic. These results indicate that although tempo distortion is likely an important contributor to the decline in TFR, it is not the sole explanation: U.S. individuals are intending to have fewer children than their immediate predecessors, which may translate into a decline in cohort completed parity. However, the change in intended parity is modest, and average intended parity remains above two children.
自经济大衰退以来，美国的总生育率持续下降，2018 年降至 1.73 个孩子，为 20 世纪 70 年代以来的最低水平。这种模式可能意味着当前的生育群体最终生育的孩子将比前几代少，或者这种模式可能是生育时间扭曲的结果，如果个体只是推迟他们计划最终要生育的孩子。在本研究说明中，我们使用了 2006-2017 年全国家庭增长调查中关于当前生育胎次和未来生育计划的数据，来阐明这个问题。我们发现，总生育计划胎次下降（从 2006-2010 年的 2.26 个下降到 2013-2017 年的 2.16 个），而计划终身不育的比例略有上升。分解表明，这种下降不是由于人口构成的变化，而是由于各亚组自身的变化。生育计划胎次的下降在年轻群体和西班牙裔群体中尤为明显。这些结果表明，尽管生育时间扭曲可能是总生育率下降的一个重要原因，但它不是唯一的解释：美国个体打算生育的孩子比他们的前辈少，这可能会导致生育队列完成的生育胎次下降。然而，生育计划胎次的变化是适度的，平均生育计划胎次仍高于两个孩子。
