The promises and pitfalls of precision: random and systematic error in physical geodesy, c. 1800-1910.

This article discusses the ways in which nineteenth-century geodesists reflected on precision as an epistemic virtue in their measurement practice. Physical geodesy is often understood as a quintessential nineteenth-century precision science, stimulating advances in instrument making and statistics, and generating incredible quantities of data. Throughout most of the nineteenth century, geodesists indeed pursued their most prestigious research problem - the exact determination of the earth's polar flattening - along those lines. Treating measurement errors as random, they assumed that remaining discordances could be overcome by manufacturing better instruments and extending statistical analysis to a larger amount of data. In the second half of the nineteenth century, however, several German geodesists developed sophisticated methodological critiques of their discipline, in which they diagnosed a too-narrow focus on precision among their peers. On their account, geodesists urgently needed to identify and anticipate the causes of the remaining measurement errors that arose from the earth's little understood interior constitution. While mostly overlooked in the literature, these critiques paved the way for many empirical successes in late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century geodesy, including the first convergent measurements of the earth's polar flattening.