School of Architecture, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing, 211816, China.
School of Architecture and Built Environment, Deakin University, Locked Bag 20001, Geelong, VIC, 3220, Australia.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Dec;30(59):124139-124154. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-30952-4. Epub 2023 Nov 24.
As China's main contributor to energy-related carbon emissions, the building sector in Jiangsu Province generates around 13.58% of the national carbon emissions. However, the influential variables of the energy structure in Jiangsu Province have been little investigated during the past decade. With the increasing emphasis on China's investment in technological innovation and adjustment of its industrial structure, research and development (R&D) has become an inevitable area for carbon emissions reduction. Nevertheless, its role in carbon emissions has rarely been examined. In this research, based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model, the variables affecting the fluctuation of carbon dioxide emissions in the building sector (CEBS) in Jiangsu Province during 2011-2019 were restructured by introducing technological factors related to the construction industry, including energy structure, energy intensity, R&D efficiency, R&D intensity, investment intensity, economic output, and population engaged in the construction industry. From the results, it can be inferred that (1) energy structure, energy intensity, R&D efficiency, and investment intensity operate as inhibitors in increasing CEBS, and investment intensity exerts a more prominent impact on suppressing the growth of CEBS; (2) R&D intensity, economic output, and population engaged have a promotional effect on the fluctuations of CEBS, among which the first factor most actively promoted the increase in carbon emissions, although its role was negligible for economic output and the population; and (3) R&D efficiency, R&D intensity, and investment intensity are the three most critical variables for influencing the CEBS, but they are volatile. The numerical fluctuation caused by the three factors might be correlated to national and local policy interventions. Finally, policy recommendations are put forward for strengthening the management and minimizing the CEBS in Jiangsu Province.
作为中国能源相关碳排放的主要贡献者，江苏省建筑行业的碳排放约占全国的 13.58%。然而，在过去十年中，江苏省能源结构的影响变量研究甚少。随着中国对技术创新投资和产业结构调整的重视，研发已成为减少碳排放的必然领域。然而，其在碳排放方面的作用却很少被研究。在这项研究中，基于对数平均迪氏分解指数（LMDI）模型，通过引入与建筑业相关的技术因素，包括能源结构、能源强度、研发效率、研发强度、投资强度、经济产出和从事建筑业的人口，重构了 2011-2019 年江苏省建筑部门二氧化碳排放波动（CEBS）的影响变量。结果表明：（1）能源结构、能源强度、研发效率和投资强度对增加 CEBS 起抑制作用，投资强度对抑制 CEBS 增长的影响更为显著；（2）研发强度、经济产出和从事建筑业的人口对 CEBS 的波动有促进作用，其中第一个因素对碳排放的增加最积极地促进作用，尽管其对经济产出和人口的作用可以忽略不计；（3）研发效率、研发强度和投资强度是影响 CEBS 的三个最关键变量，但它们是不稳定的。这三个因素引起的数值波动可能与国家和地方政策干预有关。最后，提出了加强管理和最大限度地减少江苏省 CEBS 的政策建议。
