The application of demographic characteristics of Ectropis grisescens (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) in pest risk assessment of IPM.

Ectropis grisescens Warren is one of the most important pests of tea plants. In this study, data on the development, survival, and fecundity of E. grisescens were collected at 15, 22, and 32 °C and analyzed by using the age-stage, two-sex life table. At 15 °C, the duration of the preadult period of E. grisescens was significantly prolonged (81.06 days), with high mortality (69.0%), and the proportion of emerged female adults was extremely low (7.0%). At 32 °C, the preadult period was significantly shortened (29.12 days), with high preadult mortality (74.0%), and a low proportion of emerged female adults (15.0%). At 22 °C, with low preadult mortality (24.0%), and a high proportion of emerged female adults (26.0%). The overall effects of the shorter preadult duration, higher preadult survival rate, higher proportion of emerged female adults, higher fecundity (F = 350.88 eggs/♀), and higher net reproductive rate (R0 = 91.23 offspring/individual) at 22 °C resulted in the highest values of the intrinsic rate of increase (r = 0.1054 days-1) and finite rate of increase (λ = 1.1112 days-1). Computer simulation showed that E. grisescens populations can increase much faster at 22 °C than at 15 and 32 °C. The weighted population size and cumulative weighted insect-days provided the dynamics necessary for estimating the damage potential of E. grisescens in devising economical pest management programs. Our results demonstrate that populations of E. grisescens were able to develop at a broad range of temperatures and adapt to the high temperatures. These finding can be utilized to improve the management of E. grisescens.