Digestive Endoscopic Center, Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Digestive Endoscopic Center, Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Autoimmun Rev. 2024 Mar;23(3):103498. doi: 10.1016/j.autrev.2023.103498. Epub 2023 Dec 3.
Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) exhibited a global increase in incidence over the past decade. Understanding global burden of IBD can offer valuable insights for shaping future management strategies. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of global burden of IBD from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2050.
Data on prevalence, incidence, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and IBD-attributable impairment factor (anemia) were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019. Subgroup analyses were performed based on gender, geographical regions, and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Joinpoint model, Bayesian age-period-cohort model and decomposition methodology were utilized to evaluate the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019, forecast the disease burden up to 2050 and decompose incidence, prevalence, YLDs and DALYs of IBD by population age structure, population growth and epidemiologic changes.
From 1990 to 2019, number of prevalence, DALYs, YLDs for IBD and number of prevalence for IBD-related-anemia increased significantly. Age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, DALYs, and YLDs showed declining trends, with this decline anticipated to continue until 2050 for both genders. The IBD burden remained high in countries with high and high-middle SDI. Besides, countries with low, low-middle, and middle SDI were experiencing an increasing burden. Number and ASR of prevalence and YLDs of IBD related anemia increased with SDI Decomposition analysis indicated that population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population aging.
Due to population growth and aging, the burden of IBD is projected to continue rising until 2050, which emphasizes the urgency of addressing the evolving public health challenge posed by IBD.
过去十年，炎症性肠病（IBD）的发病率在全球范围内呈上升趋势。了解全球 IBD 负担可以为制定未来管理策略提供有价值的见解。我们旨在提供 1990 年至 2019 年全球 IBD 负担的综合评估，并对 2050 年的情况进行预测。
从 2019 年全球疾病负担（GBD）中提取了患病率、发病率、残疾调整生命年（DALYs）、失能生命年（YLDs）和 IBD 归因损伤因子（贫血）的数据。基于性别、地理位置和社会人口指数（SDI）进行了亚组分析。使用 Joinpoint 模型、贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型和分解方法评估了 1990 年至 2019 年的时间趋势，预测了 2050 年的疾病负担，并根据人口年龄结构、人口增长和流行病学变化对 IBD 的发病率、患病率、YLDs 和 DALYs 进行了分解。
从 1990 年至 2019 年，IBD 的患病率、DALYs、YLDs 和 IBD 相关贫血的患病率数量均显著增加。IBD 的发病率、患病率、DALYs 和 YLDs 的年龄标准化率呈下降趋势，预计这种下降趋势将持续到 2050 年，无论性别如何。高和高中等 SDI 国家的 IBD 负担仍然很高。此外，低、低中等和中等 SDI 国家的负担正在增加。IBD 相关贫血的患病率和 YLDs 的数量和 ASR 随着 SDI 的增加而增加。分解分析表明，人口增长是主要因素，其次是人口老龄化。
由于人口增长和老龄化，预计 IBD 负担将持续增加到 2050 年，这强调了应对 IBD 带来的不断变化的公共卫生挑战的紧迫性。
