Escuela de Nutrición y Dietética, Universidad Científica del Sur, Lima 15067, Peru.
Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Biomédicas (INICIB), Universidad Ricardo Palma, Lima 15039, Peru.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Nov 21;20(23):7089. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20237089.
The escalating prevalence of overall and abdominal obesity, particularly affecting Latin America, underscores the urgent need for accessible and cost-effective predictive methods to address the growing disease burden. This study assessed skinfold thicknesses' predictive capacity for overall and abdominal obesity in Peruvian adults aged 30 or older over 5 years. Data from the PERU MIGRANT 5-year cohort study were analyzed, defining obesity using BMI and waist circumference. Receiver operating characteristic curves and area under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Adults aged ≥ 30 ( = 988) completed the study at baseline, with 47% male. A total of 682 participants were included for overall and abdominal obesity analysis. The 5-year prevalence values for overall and abdominal obesity were 26.7% and 26.6%, respectively. Subscapular skinfold (SS) best predicted overall obesity in men (AUC = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.75-0.88) and women (AUC = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.67-0.88). Regarding abdominal obesity, SS exhibited the highest AUC in men (AUC = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.77-0.89), while SS and the sum of trunk skinfolds showed the highest AUC in women. In secondary analysis excluding participants with type-2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) at baseline, SS significantly predicted DM2 development in men (AUC = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.58-0.83) and bicipital skinfold (BS) did in women (AUC = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.62-0.84). The findings highlight SS significance as an indicator of overall and abdominal obesity in both sexes among Peruvian adults. Additionally, SS, and BS offer robust predictive indicators for DM2.
全身和腹部肥胖的流行率不断上升，尤其在拉丁美洲地区更为严重，这突显了迫切需要易于获取且具有成本效益的预测方法来应对不断增长的疾病负担。本研究评估了秘鲁成年人中皮褶厚度对 5 年内全身和腹部肥胖的预测能力，这些成年人年龄在 30 岁或以上。该研究分析了 PERU MIGRANT 5 年队列研究的数据，使用 BMI 和腰围来定义肥胖。计算了受试者工作特征曲线和曲线下面积（AUC）及其 95%置信区间（CI）。共有 988 名年龄≥30 岁的成年人完成了基线研究，其中 47%为男性。共有 682 名参与者纳入全身和腹部肥胖分析。全身和腹部肥胖的 5 年患病率分别为 26.7%和 26.6%。男性中肩胛下皮褶（SS）最佳预测全身肥胖（AUC=0.81，95%CI：0.75-0.88），女性中 SS 最佳预测全身肥胖（AUC=0.77，95%CI：0.67-0.88）。腹部肥胖方面，SS 在男性中的 AUC 最高（AUC=0.83，95%CI：0.77-0.89），而 SS 和躯干皮褶总和在女性中 AUC 最高。在排除基线时患有 2 型糖尿病（DM2）的参与者的二次分析中，SS 显著预测男性 DM2 发生（AUC=0.70，95%CI：0.58-0.83），而 BS 则预测女性 DM2 发生（AUC=0.73，95%CI：0.62-0.84）。研究结果强调了 SS 在秘鲁成年人中作为两性全身和腹部肥胖的指标的重要性。此外，SS 和 BS 为 DM2 提供了可靠的预测指标。
