Unravelling the influence and mechanism of agricultural inputs on rural poverty vulnerability: Evidence from China.

Agricultural inputs have a significant catabatic effect on rural poverty at present. However, few studies have assessed whether agricultural inputs inhibit the intending probability of being vulnerable to rural poverty, referred to as poverty vulnerability. Poverty vulnerability studies, which focus on the likeli-hood of poverty among households in the future, have forward-looking and prognostic features in poverty research. Such research provides essential tools for describing mechanisms that can eradicate poverty. This study investigates the impact of agricultural inputs on rural poverty vulnerability and the mechanisms of action, using data from the 2015 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS). The empirical results show that agricultural inputs significantly suppress the probability of rural poverty vulnerability. The results hold after replacing the poverty criterion, poverty vulnerability criterion, and core explanatory variables. To overcome the endogeneity problem created by possible reverse cau-sality and omitted variables in the baseline model, this study uses the instrumental variables method to test endogeneity. The study also applies a treatment effects model and propensity score matching method to estimate and address any endogeneity problems due to explanatory variables. The findings also remain robust and significant after addressing the endogeneity problem. Further analyses indicate that the inhibitive effect of agricultural inputs on rural poverty vulnerability is mainly achieved through increased agricultural yields, improved physical health, and increased opportunities for entre-preneurial behavior. A heterogeneity analysis finds that the inhibitive effect of agricultural inputs on poverty vulnerability is more pronounced in Midwest China, in households with physically healthy household heads, and in families whose leaders have risk preferences. Our findings provide empirical evidence that can help inform forward-looking and prognostic policies for developing countries when formulating anti-poverty strategies.