Liu Haoyuan, Zhang Xiang, Deng Liangkun, Zhao Ye, Tao Shiyong, Jia Haifeng, Xu Jing, Xia Jun
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China.
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Feb 20;912:169212. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169212. Epub 2023 Dec 12.
In the Anthropocene, there is a strong interlinkage among water, energy, and the environment. The water-energy-environment nexus (WEEN) has been vigorously advocated as an emerging development paradigm and a global research agenda. Based on the nexus concept, a framework for the WEEN complex system simulation and risk assessment is developed. The three metropolitan areas of the city cluster along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (CCMRYR) are taken as the objects. Regional policies are combined with generic shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to form a localized SSPs suitable for the research region. The dynamic simulation of the WEEN complex system and the risk analysis are carried out with the combination of system dynamics models and copula functions. Results show that: There are obvious differences in water utilization, energy consumption, air pollutant emissions, and water pollutant emissions among the three metropolitan areas. The issue of high carbon intensity in the Wuhan Metropolitan Coordinating Region needs to be emphasized and solved from the perspective of optimizing the industrial structure. Adhering to current development patterns, there will be successive peaks in water utilization, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in Wuhan, Dongting Lake, and Poyang Lake Metropolitan Coordinating Region by 2030, leading to high synergy risks at the systemic level, with maximum values of 0.84, 0.85, 0.62, respectively. A development path based on conservation priorities indicates that future policymaking needs to prioritize a resource-saving and pollution-control development pattern directed by technological upgrading against the backdrop of scarce natural resource endowments. The localized SSPs are a beneficial extension that enriches the narrative of regional-scale SSPs. The evolutionary trajectories and risk assessments of WEEN complex systems under different localized SSPs provide a sweeping insight into the consequences of policy decisions, thus enabling policymakers to appraise policy rationality and implement appropriate corrective measures.
在人类世，水、能源与环境之间存在着紧密的联系。水-能源-环境关联（WEEN）已作为一种新兴的发展范式和全球研究议程得到大力倡导。基于该关联概念，开发了一个WEEN复杂系统模拟与风险评估框架。以长江中游城市群的三个大都市区为研究对象。将区域政策与通用的共享社会经济路径（SSP）相结合，形成适合研究区域的本地化SSP。结合系统动力学模型和Copula函数对WEEN复杂系统进行动态模拟和风险分析。结果表明：三个大都市区在水资源利用、能源消耗、空气污染物排放和水污染物排放方面存在明显差异。武汉大都市区协调区域的高碳强度问题需要从优化产业结构的角度加以重视和解决。坚持当前的发展模式，到2030年，武汉、洞庭湖和鄱阳湖大都市区协调区域的水资源利用、能源消耗和碳排放将相继达到峰值，导致系统层面的高协同风险，最大值分别为0.84、0.85、0.62。基于保护优先的发展路径表明，在自然资源禀赋稀缺的背景下，未来的政策制定需要优先考虑以技术升级为导向的资源节约和污染控制发展模式。本地化的SSP是一种有益的扩展，丰富了区域尺度SSP的内容。不同本地化SSP下WEEN复杂系统的演化轨迹和风险评估为政策决策的后果提供了全面的洞察，从而使政策制定者能够评估政策合理性并采取适当的纠正措施。
