National Engineering Laboratory for Lake Pollution Control and Ecological Restoration, State Environment Protection Key Laboratory for Lake Pollution Control, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China; College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China.
J Environ Manage. 2022 Sep 15;318:115644. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115644. Epub 2022 Jul 1.
The water-energy nexus (WEN) system is a large-scale complex system that comes with diverse forms of risks owing to many challenges in the process of maintaining economic-resource-environmental sustainability. First, the rapidly increasing demand for water and energy subjects many regions to the high risk of water and energy shortages. Second, decision makers face difficulties in weighing system benefits and loss risks under a series of stricter water-energy policies. To handle the aforementioned dual risks of WEN, in this study we propose copula-based stochastic downside risk-aversion programming (CSDP) for regional water-energy management. CSDP integrates the superiority of the copula analysis method and downside risk-aversion programming into a framework, which can not only reveal the risk interactions between water resources and energy demand by using copula functions under different probability distributions, even previously unknown correlations, but also control economic risk, tackle systemic uncertainties, and provide an effective linkage between system stability and conflicting economic benefits. The proposed model was applied to a water-energy system case study in Tianjin City, China. Optimal solutions for various water resources and energy demand copulas associated with different scenarios and hierarchical risk levels were examined in the CSDP model. The results showed that water resources have a greater influence than energy on industrial structure adjustment in Tianjin, with consequent effects on system benefits, optimal output value schemes, and environmental protection strategies. In addition, the tertiary industry provides a new opportunity for economic growth based on a large amount of water-energy consumption, and its potential resources and water-air pollution risks also deserve extensive attention.
水-能源纽带（WEN）系统是一个大规模的复杂系统，由于在维持经济-资源-环境可持续性的过程中存在许多挑战，因此具有多种形式的风险。首先，水和能源的需求迅速增长，使许多地区面临着水和能源短缺的高风险。其次，决策者在一系列更严格的水-能源政策下，难以权衡系统效益和损失风险。为了应对 WEN 的上述双重风险，在本研究中，我们提出了基于 copula 的随机下行风险厌恶规划（CSDP），用于区域水-能源管理。CSDP 将 copula 分析方法和下行风险厌恶规划的优势集成到一个框架中，不仅可以通过不同概率分布下的 copula 函数揭示水资源和能源需求之间的风险相互作用，甚至可以揭示以前未知的相关性，还可以控制经济风险、解决系统不确定性，并为系统稳定性和冲突的经济利益之间提供有效的联系。所提出的模型应用于中国天津市的水-能源系统案例研究。在 CSDP 模型中，检验了与不同情景和层次风险水平相关的各种水资源和能源需求 copula 的最优解决方案。结果表明，水资源对天津产业结构调整的影响大于能源，对系统效益、最优产出价值方案和环境保护策略产生影响。此外，第三产业在大量水-能源消耗的基础上为经济增长提供了新的机会，其潜在资源和水-空气污染风险也值得广泛关注。
