College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830017, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830017, China.
College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830017, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830017, China.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Feb;351:119757. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119757. Epub 2023 Dec 14.
Spatial conflicts of land use (SCLU) arise during land-use change, which causes an imbalance of land-use spatial patterns and negatively affects society, the economy, and ecology. Previous research has focused on identifying and measuring SCLU, with less attention on the negative effects. The incorporation of risk assessment methods to evaluate potential conflict risks has been limited. The current study presents methods for measuring SCLU and assessing potential conflict risks from the ecological environment perspective. The spatial comprehensive conflicts index and potential conflict risk index were used to identify and measure the SCLU and to assess and warn against potential conflict risks, respectively, based on a case study in the Ili River Valley in China. The impacts of terrain restriction and land-use change on the SCLU were explored. Results indicate that (1) the SCLU area in the Ili River Valley decreased by 2,608 km from 2010 to 2020, compared to the previous decade, the degree of conflict weakened, and the main body of the SCLU gradually shifted northwest. (2) The potential risk areas cover 20,268 km in 2020-2030 and are mainly distributed in the "Khorgas City-Huocheng County-Yining City-Yining County" group of towns, as well as along the Ili-Kunes rivers and in the ecological protection zone in the south of the Ili River Valley, which shows the clustering along the city and distribution along the river in the spatial pattern. (3) Topography had a significant impact on the SCLU, and the main types of land-use change in the severe-conflict zone were the reduction of grassland and the expansion of arable and built-up land. For future conflict mitigation in the Ili River Valley, cautioning against urban sprawl and safeguarding land ecological security is critical. This study systematically investigates and analyzes SCLU across three dimensions: theory, methodology, and application to produce a theoretical and practical framework to identify SCLU and assess potential conflict risks.
土地利用空间冲突（SCLU）是在土地利用变化过程中产生的，它导致了土地利用空间格局的不平衡，并对社会、经济和生态产生负面影响。以前的研究主要集中在识别和衡量 SCLU 上，而对其负面影响的关注较少。将风险评估方法纳入评估潜在冲突风险的应用有限。本研究提出了从生态环境角度衡量 SCLU 和评估潜在冲突风险的方法。利用空间综合冲突指数和潜在冲突风险指数，分别对 SCLU 进行识别和衡量，对潜在冲突风险进行评估和预警，并以中国伊犁河流域为例进行了实证研究。探讨了地形限制和土地利用变化对 SCLU 的影响。结果表明：（1）与前十年相比，2010 年至 2020 年，伊犁河流域 SCLU 面积减少了 2608km，冲突程度减弱，SCLU 主体逐渐向西北转移。（2）2020-2030 年潜在风险区面积达 20268km，主要分布在“霍尔果斯市-霍城县-伊宁市-伊宁县”城镇群以及伊犁-库纳河流域和伊犁河流域南部生态保护区，呈现出沿城市集聚和沿河流分布的空间格局。（3）地形对 SCLU 有显著影响，严重冲突区的主要土地利用变化类型是草地减少和耕地、建设用地增加。为了缓解未来伊犁河流域的冲突，需要警惕城市扩张和保护土地生态安全。本研究从理论、方法和应用三个维度系统地调查和分析了 SCLU，提出了一个识别 SCLU 和评估潜在冲突风险的理论和实践框架。
