Estimation of Norovirus infections in Japan: An application of wastewater-based epidemiology for enteric disease assessment.

Noroviruses of genogroup I (NoV GI) and NoV GII are the primary causes of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in developed countries. However, asymptomatic and untested NoV infections lead to an underestimation of AGE cases, and the lack of mandatory viral identification in clinical cases hinders precise estimation of NoV infections. Back estimation of NoV infections in the community using a wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) approach can provide valuable insights into the disease's extent, progression, and epidemiology, aiding in developing effective control strategies. This study employed a one-step reverse transcription-quantitative PCR to quantify NoVs GI and GII in wastewater samples (n = 83) collected twice a week from June 2022 to March 2023 in Japan. All samples from the Winter-Spring (n = 27) tested positive for NoV GI and GII RNA, while 73 % and 88 % of samples from the Summer-Autumn (n = 56) were positive for NoV GI and NoV GII RNA, respectively. Significantly higher concentrations of NoV GI/GII RNA were found in the Winter-Spring season compared to the Summer-Autumn season. NoV RNA was consistently detected in wastewater throughout the year, demonstrating the persistence of AGE cases in the catchment, suggesting an endemic NoV infection. Estimates of NoV infection incorporated viral RNA concentrations, wastewater parameters, and signal persistence in a mass balance equation using Monte Carlo Simulation. The median estimated NoV GI infections per 100,000 population for Summer-Autumn was 133 and for the Winter-Spring season, it was 881. Estimated NoV GII infections were 1357 for Summer-Autumn and 11,997 for the Winter-Spring season per 100,000 population. The estimated NoV infections exceeded by 3.2 and 23.9 folds than the reported AGE cases in Summer-Autumn and Winter-Spring seasons, respectively. The seasonal trend of estimated NoV infections closely matched that of AGE cases, highlighting the utility of WBE in understanding the epidemiology of enteric infections.