Reilly M S
Br J Ind Med. 1987 Jan;44(1):7-13. doi: 10.1136/oem.44.1.7.
Systematic studies of 618 fishing vessel losses between January 1961 and December 1982 have shown a significantly increased incidence of total losses from 1972 onwards. Comparison of mean pre- and post-1972 rates indicated an increase of 120% from 2.54 to 5.58 losses per 1000 vessels at risk. Parallel examination of the mortality of fishermen from all occupational accidents showed no improvement. For deaths arising from vessel losses alone, the mean crude death rate, for the same periods, increased by 13%. Despite these findings, formal investigations (courts of inquiry) into fishing losses, ordered by the Department of Transport according to specified criteria, decreased in number from about 1975 onwards. The mean number fell by 61% from 3.1 (1961-71) to 1.2 a year (1972-82). Furthermore, the reduction in the rate of formal investigations into fishing vessel losses (-84%; p less than 0.0001) was greater than the corresponding reduction (-61%; p less than 0.001) in United Kingdom merchant vessel investigations and this difference was statistically significant (p less than 0.01). During 1972-82 there were 61 fewer fishing investigations than predicted from the rate at which these were ordered during 1961-71. The last took place in 1979. None of the 141 fishing vessel losses between January 1980 and December 1982 proceeded to formal investigation. The possibility that the criteria for ordering formal investigations have not been fulfilled by the circumstances of fishing vessel losses from 1975 onwards is assessed as one explanation for this paradoxical finding of an inverse relation between losses and investigations. The accident investigation and public reporting procedures for aviation accidents should be adobted for marine accidents in general and fishing vessel losses in particular.
对1961年1月至1982年12月期间618起渔船损失事件的系统研究表明,自1972年起全损事件的发生率显著上升。对1972年前后平均发生率的比较显示,每1000艘受险船只的损失率从2.54起增至5.58,增长了120%。对所有职业事故中渔民死亡率的平行调查显示情况并无改善。仅就因船只损失导致的死亡而言,同期的平均粗死亡率上升了13%。尽管有这些发现,但根据特定标准由运输部下令对渔业损失展开的正式调查(调查法庭)自1975年左右起数量减少。平均数量从每年3.1起(1961 - 1971年)降至1.2起(1972 - 1982年),降幅为61%。此外,对渔船损失展开正式调查的比率下降幅度(-84%;p小于0.0001)大于英国商船调查的相应降幅(-61%;p小于0.001),且这种差异具有统计学显著性(p小于0.01)。在1972 - 1982年期间,渔业调查比根据1961 - 1971年下令调查的比率所预测的少61起。最后一次调查发生在1979年。1980年1月至1982年12月期间的141起渔船损失事件均未进行正式调查。一种解释这一损失与调查之间存在反比关系这一矛盾发现的可能性是,自1975年起渔船损失的情况未满足下令进行正式调查的标准。一般海上事故尤其是渔船损失,应采用航空事故的事故调查和公众报告程序。