A practical online prediction platform to predict the survival status of laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma after 5 years.

OBJECTIVE

Currently, there are few practical tools for predicting the prognosis of laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC). This study aims to establish a model and a convenient online prediction platform to predict whether LSCC patients will survive 5 years after diagnosis, providing a reference for further evaluation of patient prognosis.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study based on data collected from two centers. Center 1 included 117 LSCC patients with survival prognosis data, and center 2 included 33 patients, totaling 150 patients. All data were divided into independent training sets (60 %) and testing sets (40 %). Eight machine learning (ML) algorithms were used to establish models with 11 clinical parameters as input features. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of the testing set were used to evaluate the models, and the best model was selected. The model was then developed into a website-based 5-year survival status prediction platform for LSCC. In addition, we also used the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) tool to conduct interpretability analysis on the parameters of the model.

RESULTS

The LSCC 5-year survival status prediction model using the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm achieved the best results, with accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 85.0 %, 87.5 %, 75.0 %, and 81.2 % respectively. The online platform for predicting the 5-year survival status of LSCC based on this model was successfully established. The SHAP analysis shows that the clinical stage is the most important feature of the model.

CONCLUSION

This study successfully established a ML model and a practical online prediction platform to predict the survival status of laryngeal cancer patients after 5 years, which may help clinicians to better evaluate the prognosis of LSCC.