Wolf William J
Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford, UK.
Stud Hist Philos Sci. 2024 Feb;103:146-158. doi: 10.1016/j.shpsa.2023.12.006. Epub 2023 Dec 29.
I apply Dawid's Meta-Empirical Assessment (MEA) methodology to the theory of cosmological inflation. I argue that applying this methodology does not currently offer a compelling case for ascribing non-empirical confirmation to cosmological inflation. In particular, I argue that despite displaying strong instances of Unexpected Explanatory Coherence (UEA), it is premature to evaluate the theory on the basis of the No Alternatives Argument (NAA). More significantly though, I argue that the theory of cosmological inflation fails to sustain a convincing Meta-Inductive Argument (MIA) because the empirical evidence and theoretical successes that it seeks to draw meta-empirical support from do not warrant a meta-inductive inference to inflation. I conclude by assessing how future developments could pave the way towards crafting a more compelling case for the non-empirical confirmation of cosmological inflation.
我将达维德的元经验评估（MEA）方法应用于宇宙暴胀理论。我认为，目前应用这种方法并不能为将非经验性确证归因于宇宙暴胀提供令人信服的理由。具体而言，我认为尽管宇宙暴胀理论展现出了强烈的意外解释一致性（UEA）实例，但基于无替代方案论证（NAA）对该理论进行评估还为时过早。不过，更重要的是，我认为宇宙暴胀理论无法支撑一个令人信服的元归纳论证（MIA），因为它试图从中获取元经验支持的经验证据和理论成功并不足以支持对暴胀的元归纳推理。最后，我评估了未来的发展如何能够为构建一个更有说服力的关于宇宙暴胀非经验性确证的案例铺平道路。
