China Railway First Survey and Design Institute Group Co., LTD, Xi'an Shanxi, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Jan 2;19(1):e0285325. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0285325. eCollection 2024.
In this paper, the stochastic frontier gravity model is applied to analyze the trade potential between China and Nepal and the prospects of Lanzhou-Kathmandu South Asian rail-road freight trains (LKSARFT). Based on the statistical data, we test the Exports Efficiency (EE), Bilateral Trade Efficiency (BTE), Exports Trade Potential (ETP), Bilateral Trade Potential (BTP), Extended Exports Trade Potential (EETP), Extended Bilateral Trade Potential (EBTP), Improved Exports Trade Potential (IETP) and Improved Bilateral Trade Potential (IBTP) between China and Nepal, the following analysis results can be found: for the bilateral trade model, the bilateral non-efficiency factor decreasing at a rate of 0.057 with time increasing, bilateral trade increasing at a rate of 0.057 with time increasing. For the exports model, the exports non-efficiency factor increasing at a rate of 0.004 with time increasing, exports trade decreasing at a rate of 0.057 with time increasing. The BTE between China and Nepal increases when time changes, the EE from China to Nepal remains constant changing during the 18 years. The changing range of BTE is 0.002-0.05; the changing range of EE from China to Nepal is over 0.1, larger than the BTE. The BTE and EE ranking among the eight South Asian countries are ranking fifth and fourth during the 18 years. exports trade resistance from China to Nepal is larger than bilateral trade resistance; The import trade potential from Nepal to China is huge, the focus of bilateral trade between China and Nepal may be changed, there are more goods may be exported from Nepal to China, and China may become trade deficit when trading with Nepal. Then, the development bottlenecks of the LKSARFT are analyzed. Finally, we give policy directions to boost bilateral trade efficiency and tap the potential of bilateral trade between China and Nepal.
本文运用随机前沿引力模型，分析了中国与尼泊尔之间的贸易潜力以及兰州-加德满都南亚铁路货运列车（LKSARFT）的前景。基于统计数据，我们测试了中国与尼泊尔之间的出口效率（EE）、双边贸易效率（BTE）、出口贸易潜力（ETP）、双边贸易潜力（BTP）、扩展出口贸易潜力（EETP）、扩展双边贸易潜力（EBTP）、改进出口贸易潜力（IETP）和改进双边贸易潜力（IBTP），得出以下分析结果：对于双边贸易模型，双边非效率因素随时间以 0.057 的速度减少，双边贸易随时间以 0.057 的速度增加。对于出口模型，出口非效率因素随时间以 0.004 的速度增加，出口贸易随时间以 0.057 的速度减少。随着时间的变化，中国与尼泊尔之间的 BTE 增加，18 年来，中国对尼泊尔的 EE 保持不变。BTE 的变化范围为 0.002-0.05；中国对尼泊尔 EE 的变化范围超过 0.1，大于 BTE。在 18 年中，中国与南亚八国的 BTE 和 EE 排名分别为第五和第四。中国对尼泊尔的出口贸易阻力大于双边贸易阻力；尼泊尔对中国的进口贸易潜力巨大，中国与尼泊尔双边贸易的重点可能会发生变化，可能会有更多的尼泊尔商品出口到中国，中国在与尼泊尔进行贸易时可能会出现贸易逆差。然后，分析了 LKSARFT 的发展瓶颈。最后，我们提出了促进双边贸易效率和挖掘中国与尼泊尔双边贸易潜力的政策方向。
