School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150090, China.
The Second Research Institute of Civil Aviation Administration of China, Chengdu, 610041, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Nov;29(52):78666-78682. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-21352-1. Epub 2022 Jun 13.
The extensive literature has debated the varying effects of factors on carbon dioxide (CO) emissions. However, it has paid little attention to land freight structure (FS), including road and rail freight share, which may have different effects on CO emissions. Based on the data from 6 eastern provinces in China during 2005-2019, the panel threshold model is used to explore the dynamic influence mechanism of road and rail freight share on transport carbon emission intensity (CE), respectively. The results show different nonlinear relationships between the share of road and rail freight and transport carbon emission intensity. First, the effect of road freight share on carbon emission intensity is all positive across different stages of trade openness, while such effect goes through a process of increasing and then decreasing with the level of trade openness improving. Second, the driving effect of rail freight share on carbon emission intensity exhibits a "negative-positive-negative" feature as the level of trade openness increases. Third, trade openness generates a double-threshold effect on carbon emission intensity. The differentiated nonlinear effects provide significant evidence of the modal shift from road to rail freight, which would be effective to alleviate transport CO emissions.
大量文献探讨了各种因素对二氧化碳（CO）排放的不同影响。然而，对于包括公路和铁路货运份额在内的土地货运结构（FS），它关注甚少，而这可能对 CO 排放有不同的影响。本文基于 2005-2019 年中国东部 6 个省份的数据，利用面板门槛模型分别探讨了公路和铁路货运份额对交通碳排放强度（CE）的动态影响机制。结果表明，公路和铁路货运份额与交通碳排放强度之间存在不同的非线性关系。首先，在贸易开放度的不同阶段，公路货运份额对碳排放强度的影响均为正，而这种影响随着贸易开放度的提高经历了一个先增加后减少的过程。其次，铁路货运份额对碳排放强度的驱动效应随着贸易开放度的提高呈现出“负-正-负”的特征。第三，贸易开放度对碳排放强度产生了双重门槛效应。这种差异化的非线性效应为公路向铁路货运的模式转变提供了重要证据，这将有效缓解交通 CO 排放。
