School of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical University, Jiangxi Province, Ganzhou, 341000, China.
Ganzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangxi Province, Ganzhou, 341000, China.
BMC Public Health. 2024 Jan 2;24(1):36. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-17423-8.
Scrub typhus poses a substantial risk to human life and wellbeing as it is transmitted by vectors. Although the correlation between climate and vector-borne diseases has been investigated, the impact of climate on scrub typhus remains inadequately comprehended. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of meteorological conditions on the occurrence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province. METHODS: From January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2021, we gathered weekly records of scrub typhus prevalence alongside meteorological data in Ganzhou city. In order to investigate the correlation between meteorological factors and scrub typhus incidence, we utilized distributional lag nonlinear models and generalized additive models for our analysis.
Between 2008 and 2021, a total of 5942 cases of scrub typhus were recorded in Ganzhou City. The number of females affected exceeded that of males, with a male-to-female ratio of 1:1.86. Based on the median values of these meteorological factors, the highest relative risk for scrub typhus occurrence was observed when the weekly average temperature reached 26 °C, the weekly average relative humidity was 75%, the weekly average sunshine duration lasted for 2 h, and the weekly mean wind speed measured 2 m/s. The respective relative risks for these factors were calculated as 3.816 (95% CI: 1.395-10.438), 1.107 (95% CI: 1.008-1.217), 2.063 (95% CI: 1.022-4.165), and 1.284 (95% CI: 1.01-1.632). Interaction analyses showed that the risk of scrub typhus infection in Ganzhou city escalates with higher weekly average temperature and sunshine duration.
The findings of our investigation provide evidence of a correlation between environmental factors and the occurrence of scrub typhus. As a suggestion, utilizing environmental factors as early indicators could be recommended for initiating control measures and response strategies.
恙虫病通过媒介传播，对人类生命和健康构成重大威胁。尽管已经研究了气候与媒介传播疾病之间的相关性，但对气候对恙虫病的影响仍了解不足。本研究旨在探讨气象条件对江西省赣州市恙虫病发生的影响。
我们收集了 2008 年 1 月 1 日至 2021 年 12 月 31 日期间赣州市每周的恙虫病患病率和气象数据。为了研究气象因素与恙虫病发病率之间的相关性，我们采用分布滞后非线性模型和广义加性模型进行分析。
2008 年至 2021 年期间，赣州市共记录 5942 例恙虫病病例。女性患者多于男性，男女比例为 1:1.86。根据这些气象因素的中位数，当每周平均气温达到 26°C、每周平均相对湿度为 75%、每周平均日照时间为 2 小时、每周平均风速为 2m/s 时，恙虫病发生的相对风险最高。这些因素的相对风险分别计算为 3.816（95%CI：1.395-10.438）、1.107（95%CI：1.008-1.217）、2.063（95%CI：1.022-4.165）和 1.284（95%CI：1.01-1.632）。交互分析表明，赣州市恙虫病感染风险随每周平均气温和日照时间的升高而升高。
本研究结果表明环境因素与恙虫病发生之间存在相关性。因此，建议将环境因素作为早期指标，用于启动控制措施和应对策略。
