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多源噪声驱动的复杂传染病模型的随机动力学分析。

Stochastic dynamical analysis for the complex infectious disease model driven by multisource noises.

机构信息

The Blood Center of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Yinchuan, China.

School of Mathematics and Information Science, North Minzu University, Yinchuan, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2024 Jan 4;19(1):e0296183. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0296183. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

This paper mainly studies the dynamical behavior of the infectious disease model affected by white noise and Lévy noise. First, a stochastic model of infectious disease with secondary vaccination affected by noises is established. Besides, the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution for the stochastic model are proved based on stochastic differential equations and Lyapunov function, then the asymptotic behavior of the disease-free equilibrium point is studied. Moreover, the sufficient conditions for the extinction of the disease are obtained and the analysis showed that different noise intensity could affect the extinction of infectious disease on different degree. Finally, the theoretical results are verified by numerical simulation and some suggestions have been put forward on how to prevent the spread of diseases are presented.

摘要

本文主要研究了受白噪声和 Lévy 噪声影响的传染病模型的动力学行为。首先,建立了一个受噪声影响的具有二次接种的传染病随机模型。其次,基于随机微分方程和李雅普诺夫函数,证明了随机模型全局正解的存在唯一性,然后研究了无病平衡点的渐近行为。此外,得到了疾病灭绝的充分条件,分析表明,不同的噪声强度会在不同程度上影响传染病的灭绝。最后,通过数值模拟验证了理论结果,并提出了一些关于如何预防疾病传播的建议。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b309/10766192/3c1ebf140020/pone.0296183.g001.jpg

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