Data for Impact Department, The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), Geneva, Switzerland.
Center for Modeling, Planning and Policy Analysis, Avenir Health, Glastonbury, CT.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2024 Jan 1;95(1S):e34-e45. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000003340. Epub 2024 Jan 4.
Previously, The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimated proportions of adult new HIV infections among key populations (KPs) in the last calendar year, globally and in 8 regions. We refined and updated these, for 2010 and 2022, using country-level trend models informed by national data.
Infections among 15-49 year olds were estimated for sex workers (SWs), male clients of female SW, men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), transgender women (TGW), and non-KP sex partners of these groups. Transmission models used were Goals (71 countries), AIDS Epidemic Model (13 Asian countries), Optima (9 European and Central Asian countries), and Thembisa (South Africa). Statistical Estimation and Projection Package fits were used for 15 countries. For 40 countries, new infections in 1 or more KPs were approximated from first-time diagnoses by the mode of transmission. Infection proportions among nonclient partners came from Goals, Optima, AIDS Epidemic Model, and Thembisa. For remaining countries and groups not represented in models, median proportions by KP were extrapolated from countries modeled within the same region.
Across 172 countries, estimated proportions of new adult infections in 2010 and 2022 were both 7.7% for SW, 11% and 20% for MSM, 0.72% and 1.1% for TGW, 6.8% and 8.0% for PWID, 12% and 10% for clients, and 5.3% and 8.2% for nonclient partners. In sub-Saharan Africa, proportions of new HIV infections decreased among SW, clients, and non-KP partners but increased for PWID; elsewhere these groups' 2010-to-2022 differences were opposite. For MSM and TGW, the proportions increased across all regions.
KPs continue to have disproportionately high HIV incidence.
此前，联合国艾滋病规划署联合方案（UNAIDS）曾估计过全球和 8 个地区的关键人群（KPs）在过去一年中新感染艾滋病毒的成年人比例。我们使用国家数据提供的国家一级趋势模型对这些数据进行了细化和更新，分别更新至 2010 年和 2022 年。
估计了性工作者（SWs）、SWs 的男性性伴侣、男男性行为者（MSM）、注射吸毒者（PWID）、跨性别女性（TGW）以及这些群体的非 KP 性伴侣中 15-49 岁的人群中的感染情况。使用的传播模型包括目标（71 个国家）、艾滋病流行模型（13 个亚洲国家）、Optima（9 个欧洲和中亚国家）和 Thembisa（南非）。15 个国家使用了统计估计和预测软件包进行拟合。对于 40 个国家，通过传播模式对 1 个或多个 KPs 中的首次诊断进行了新感染的近似估计。非客户伴侣的感染比例来自目标、Optima、艾滋病流行模型和 Thembisa。对于其他国家和未包含在模型中的群体，根据同一地区建模的国家，推断出 KP 中位数比例。
在 172 个国家中，2010 年和 2022 年新感染成年人口的估计比例均为性工作者 7.7%、男男性行为者 11%和 20%、跨性别女性 0.72%和 1.1%、注射吸毒者 6.8%和 8.0%、性伴侣 12%和 10%、非性伴侣 5.3%和 8.2%。在撒哈拉以南非洲，性工作者、性伴侣和非 KP 伴侣的新 HIV 感染比例下降，但 PWID 的感染比例上升；在其他地方，这些群体在 2010 年至 2022 年期间的差异则相反。对于 MSM 和 TGW，所有地区的比例都有所增加。
KPs 仍然面临不成比例的高艾滋病毒感染率。
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