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在墨西哥蒂华纳，重叠的关键人群与 HIV 传播：对流行驱动因素的建模分析。

Overlapping Key Populations and HIV Transmission in Tijuana, Mexico: A Modelling Analysis of Epidemic Drivers.

机构信息

Oakfield House, Population Health Sciences - Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 2BN, UK.

School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, San Diego, USA.

出版信息

AIDS Behav. 2021 Nov;25(11):3814-3827. doi: 10.1007/s10461-021-03361-2. Epub 2021 Jul 3.

DOI:10.1007/s10461-021-03361-2
PMID:34216285
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8560668/
Abstract

Tijuana, Mexico, has a concentrated HIV epidemic among overlapping key populations (KPs) including people who inject drugs (PWID), female sex workers (FSW), their male clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed a dynamic HIV transmission model among these KPs to determine the extent to which their unmet prevention and treatment needs is driving HIV transmission. Over 2020-2029 we estimated the proportion of new infections acquired in each KP, and the proportion due to their unprotected risk behaviours. We estimate that 43.7% and 55.3% of new infections are among MSM and PWID, respectively, with FSW and their clients making-up < 10% of new infections. Projections suggest 93.8% of new infections over 2020-2029 will be due to unprotected sex between MSM or unsafe injecting drug use. Prioritizing interventions addressing sexual and injecting risks among MSM and PWID are critical to controlling HIV in Tijuana.

摘要

墨西哥提华纳（Tijuana）的重叠关键人群（Key Populations，简称 KPs）中存在集中的艾滋病毒流行，这些人群包括注射毒品者（People Who Inject Drugs，简称 PWID）、性工作者（Female Sex Workers，简称 FSW）、他们的男性客户以及男男性接触者（Men Who Have Sex with Men，简称 MSM）。我们为这些 KPs 开发了一种动态艾滋病毒传播模型，以确定他们未满足的预防和治疗需求在多大程度上推动了艾滋病毒传播。在 2020 年至 2029 年期间，我们估计了每个 KP 中获得的新感染比例，以及由于其无保护的风险行为而导致的感染比例。我们估计，新感染的 43.7%和 55.3%分别发生在 MSM 和 PWID 中，FSW 和他们的客户在新感染中占比不到 10%。预测表明，2020 年至 2029 年期间，93.8%的新感染将归因于 MSM 之间或不安全注射毒品使用的无保护性行为。优先考虑针对 MSM 和 PWID 中的性和注射风险的干预措施对于控制提华纳的艾滋病毒至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cca3/8560668/1f123798e3e5/10461_2021_3361_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cca3/8560668/725d4257a3bd/10461_2021_3361_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cca3/8560668/f42f2d665521/10461_2021_3361_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cca3/8560668/e75503e113d4/10461_2021_3361_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cca3/8560668/1f123798e3e5/10461_2021_3361_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cca3/8560668/725d4257a3bd/10461_2021_3361_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cca3/8560668/f42f2d665521/10461_2021_3361_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cca3/8560668/e75503e113d4/10461_2021_3361_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cca3/8560668/1f123798e3e5/10461_2021_3361_Fig4_HTML.jpg

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