Zaheer Sidra, Yasmeen Farah
Sidra Zaheer, Ph.D. School of Public Health, Dow University of Health Sciences, OJHA Campus, SUPARCO Road, Gulzar e Hijri, Karachi, Pakistan, Department of Statistics, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan.
Dr. Farah Yasmeen, Ph.D. Department of Statistics, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan.
Pak J Med Sci. 2024 Jan-Feb;40(1Part-I):134-139. doi: 10.12669/pjms.40.1.7123.
Breast cancer prevalence in Pakistan is among the highest in Asian countries. Recent changes in the temporal trends of breast cancer are largely unknown and examination of these trends can provide a direction in national planning for future health programs. The aim of this study was to examine recent changes in breast cancer incidence in Pakistan.
A total of 9,771 diagnosed breast cancer women were registered from 2004 to 2015 in three hospitals of Karachi. Join-point regression analysis was applied to assessing the age-standardized breast cancer presentation trends for each five-year age group. Age-specific average annual percentage changes were also calculated to assess the proportion of women with increased or decreased incidence of breast cancer.
Age-standardized rates of breast cancer steadily increased from 24.7 per 100,000 in 2004, to 45.4 per 100,000 in 2015. The analytical trend based on the join-point model showed an average percentage increase breast cancer prevalence of 5.4 (95% CI = 3.1, 7.8). Significantly higher prevalence rates were identified among women aged 40-44 years and 65-69 years with an average percentage change of 18.5 (95% CI = 2.3, 37.2) and 14.3 (95% CI = 2.2, 27.9) respectively in the four years from 2011 to 2015.
The findings indicate the trend in age-standardized prevalence increased significantly in all age groups with noticeably larger increases observed among older and post-menopausal women from 2011 to 2015. The results warrant the need for more targeted interventions to high-risk groups and a sound foundation for cancer control program planning and policy development in Pakistan to reduce the increasing incidence of breast cancer.
巴基斯坦的乳腺癌患病率在亚洲国家中位居前列。乳腺癌时间趋势的近期变化在很大程度上尚不明确，对这些趋势的研究可为未来国家卫生项目规划提供方向。本研究的目的是调查巴基斯坦乳腺癌发病率的近期变化。
2004年至2015年期间，在卡拉奇的三家医院共登记了9771名确诊乳腺癌女性。采用连接点回归分析评估每个五岁年龄组的年龄标准化乳腺癌发病趋势。还计算了特定年龄的年均百分比变化，以评估乳腺癌发病率上升或下降的女性比例。
乳腺癌的年龄标准化发病率从2004年的每10万人24.7例稳步上升至2015年的每10万人45.4例。基于连接点模型的分析趋势显示，乳腺癌患病率平均上升了5.4%（95%置信区间=3.1，7.8）。在40 - 44岁和65 - 69岁的女性中发现患病率显著更高，在2011年至2015年的四年中，平均百分比变化分别为18.5%（95%置信区间=2.3，37.2）和14.3%（95%置信区间=2.2，27.9）。
研究结果表明，各年龄组的年龄标准化患病率均呈显著上升趋势，2011年至2015年期间，老年和绝经后女性的上升幅度尤为明显。这些结果表明有必要针对高危人群采取更具针对性的干预措施，并为巴基斯坦的癌症控制项目规划和政策制定提供坚实基础，以降低不断上升的乳腺癌发病率。
