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中国及全球骨关节炎疾病负担的趋势与预测:基于2019年全球疾病负担数据库的比较研究

Trends and projections of the burden of osteoarthritis disease in China and globally: A comparative study of the 2019 global burden of disease database.

作者信息

Wang Liping, Ye Yitong

机构信息

Department of Orthopedics, Jinhua Guangfu Tumor Hospital, Jinhua 321000, China.

出版信息

Prev Med Rep. 2023 Dec 17;37:102562. doi: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2023.102562. eCollection 2024 Jan.

Abstract

This study aims to characterize the burden of osteoarthritis in China and globally from 1990 to 2019 and predict the burden for the next decade. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database is designed to assess the burden of various diseases and injuries on a global scale. Age-standardized rate data for the incidence, prevalence, and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) of osteoarthritis in both China and the global context were extracted. Furthermore, the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) to illustrate the long-term trends in the burden of osteoarthritis disease was calculated. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were applied to forecast the trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYR) for osteoarthritis in China and globally for the next 11 years. Knee osteoarthritis showed a changing trend of ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR from 1990 to 2019 in China, initially decreasing and then increasing. In contrast, global osteoarthritis exhibited a relatively stable overall trend over three decades. Knee osteoarthritis exhibited the highest incidence, prevalence, and YLDs across various age groups and genders. The ARIMA forecast indicated a slight upward trend in osteoarthritis burden in China and globally over the next 11 years. Osteoarthritis poses a significant health issue, emphasizing the need to enhance awareness and management of osteoarthritis among the population and policymakers, particularly focusing on the elderly and female populations.

摘要

本研究旨在描述1990年至2019年中国及全球骨关节炎的负担情况,并预测未来十年的负担。全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库旨在评估全球范围内各种疾病和损伤的负担。提取了中国和全球背景下骨关节炎发病率、患病率和伤残调整生命年(YLDs)的年龄标准化率数据。此外,计算了估计年度百分比变化(EAPC)以说明骨关节炎疾病负担的长期趋势。应用自回归积分移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测中国和全球未来11年骨关节炎的年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)、年龄标准化患病率(ASPR)和年龄标准化YLDs率(ASYR)趋势。1990年至2019年中国膝关节骨关节炎的ASIR、ASPR和ASYR呈现出先下降后上升的变化趋势。相比之下,全球骨关节炎在三十年里总体趋势相对稳定。膝关节骨关节炎在各年龄组和性别中发病率、患病率和YLDs最高。ARIMA预测表明,未来1l年中国和全球骨关节炎负担将呈轻微上升趋势。骨关节炎构成了一个重大的健康问题,强调需要提高公众和政策制定者对骨关节炎的认识和管理,尤其要关注老年人群体和女性群体。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ea34/10776652/07b0aa2a7df3/gr1.jpg

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