Spatiotemporal distribution of groundwater drought using GRACE-based satellite estimates: a case study of Lower Gangetic Basin, India.

Droughts frequently occurring in India have significant societal, economic, and environmental effects. The lack of direct measurements of groundwater in location and time hinders quantitative methods to analyse the intricate nature of groundwater drought. This work used the datasets derived from the Gravity and Climate Experiment (GRACE and GRACE-FO) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) to extensively analyse Groundwater Storage changes in the Lower Gangetic Basin (LGB) using unique hydrological parameters between the years 2003 and 2022. The analysis highlights that the GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage anomaly in the LGB decreased significantly (-12.12 mm/yr), and the amount of Groundwater Storage Anomaly (GWSA) decreased similarly (-10.80 mm/yr), while in the GRACE-FO period, a positive trend has been noticed in TWSA (33.96 mm/yr) and GWSA (64.8 mm/yr) respectively. A drought indicator called the GRACE-derived groundwater drought index (GGDI) has been computed for the entire LGB region. A traditional drought study viz. Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) was performed over LGB to justify the results of the GGDI. The results from GGDI study effectively matched the periods of significant drought occurrences with the 12-month SPI time series. From the GGDI, this study examined groundwater drought's spatial distribution, temporal evolution, and trend (Modified Mann Kendall trend) aspects. According to research findings, the LGB experienced three major drought periods between 2009-2010, 2019 (moderate), and 2015-2016 (severe). The study offers reliable quantitative data on the evolution of GRACE-derived groundwater drought, which may add a new perspective to additional drought research in the densely populated study area, which depends majorly on agriculture, livestock and less skilled water-intensive industries such as leather and textile industries in a sub-tropical climate. This paradigm incorporates changes in groundwater resources caused by human activities and climate change, paving the way for measuring progress towards sustainable use and water security.