Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Institute for Healthy China, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Jan 23;121(4):e2312556121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2312556121. Epub 2024 Jan 16.
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a zoonotic disease caused by the rodent-transmitted orthohantaviruses (HVs), with China possessing the most cases globally. The virus hosts in China are and , and the disease spread is strongly influenced by global climate dynamics. To assess and predict the spatiotemporal trends of HFRS from 2005 to 2098, we collected historical HFRS data in mainland China (2005-2020), historical and projected climate and population data (2005-2098), and spatial variables including biotic, environmental, topographical, and socioeconomic. Spatiotemporal predictions and mapping were conducted under 27 scenarios incorporating multiple integrated representative concentration pathway models and population scenarios. We identify the type of magistral HVs host species as the best spatial division, including four region categories. Seven extreme climate indices associated with temperature and precipitation have been pinpointed as key factors affecting the trends of HFRS. Our predictions indicate that annual HFRS cases will increase significantly in 62 of 356 cities in mainland China. regions are predicted to be the most active, surpassing and Mixed regions. Eighty cities are identified as at severe risk level for HFRS, each with over 50 reported cases annually, including 22 new cities primarily located in East China and regions after 2020, while 6 others develop new risk. Our results suggest that the risk of HFRS will remain high through the end of this century, with being the most active host, and that extreme climate indices are significant risk factors. Our findings can inform evidence-based policymaking regarding future risk of HFRS.
肾综合征出血热(HFRS)是一种由啮齿动物传播的正布尼亚病毒(HV)引起的人畜共患疾病,中国是全球病例最多的国家。中国的病毒宿主为 和 ,疾病传播受到全球气候动态的强烈影响。为了评估和预测 2005 年至 2098 年 HFRS 的时空趋势,我们收集了中国大陆的历史 HFRS 数据(2005-2020 年)、历史和预测的气候和人口数据(2005-2098 年)以及包括生物、环境、地形和社会经济在内的空间变量。在 27 种情景下,我们进行了时空预测和制图,这些情景综合了多种综合代表性浓度途径模型和人口情景。我们确定 HV 宿主物种的类型为最佳空间划分,包括四个区域类别。与温度和降水相关的七个极端气候指数被确定为影响 HFRS 趋势的关键因素。我们的预测表明,在中国大陆的 356 个城市中,有 62 个城市的年度 HFRS 病例将显著增加。 地区被预测为最活跃的地区,超过了 和 地区。有 80 个城市被确定为 HFRS 严重风险地区,每个地区每年报告的病例超过 50 例,其中包括 22 个新城市,主要位于华东地区和 地区,以及 6 个其他地区的新风险。我们的结果表明,本世纪末 HFRS 的风险将保持较高水平, 是最活跃的宿主,极端气候指数是重要的风险因素。我们的研究结果可以为未来 HFRS 风险的循证决策提供信息。
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