He Junyu, Wang Yanding, Wei Xianyu, Sun Hailong, Xu Yuanyong, Yin Wenwu, Wang Yong, Zhang Wenyi
Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China.
Ocean Academy, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China.
J Med Virol. 2023 Jan;95(1):e28269. doi: 10.1002/jmv.28269. Epub 2022 Nov 12.
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is highly endemic in mainland China. The current study aims to characterize the spatial-temporal dynamics of HFRS in mainland China during a long-term period (1950-2018). A total of 1 665 431 cases of HFRS were reported with an average annual incidence of 54.22 cases/100 000 individuals during 1950-2018. The joint regression model was used to define the global trend of the HFRS cases with an increasing-decreasing-slightly increasing-decreasing-slightly increasing trend during the 68 years. Then spatial correlation analysis and wavelet cluster analysis were used to identify four types of clusters of HFRS cases located in central and northeastern China. Lastly, the prophet model outperforms auto-regressive integrated moving average model in the HFRS modeling. Our findings will help reduce the knowledge gap on the transmission dynamics and distribution patterns of the HFRS in mainland China and facilitate to take effective preventive and control measures for the high-risk epidemic area.
肾综合征出血热（HFRS）在中国内地具有高度地方性流行特征。本研究旨在描述中国内地长期（1950 - 2018年）肾综合征出血热的时空动态变化。1950 - 2018年期间共报告了1665431例肾综合征出血热病例，平均年发病率为54.22例/10万人口。采用联合回归模型确定肾综合征出血热病例的全球趋势，在这68年期间呈现出先上升、再下降、再略有上升、再下降、再略有上升的趋势。然后利用空间相关性分析和小波聚类分析，确定了位于中国中部和东北部的四类肾综合征出血热病例聚集区。最后，在肾综合征出血热建模方面，先知模型优于自回归积分滑动平均模型。我们的研究结果将有助于缩小对中国内地肾综合征出血热传播动态和分布模式的认知差距，并有助于对高风险流行地区采取有效的预防和控制措施。
