Kuang Wentao, He Yuxi, Luo Piaoyi, Fu Liuyi, Ni Han, Zhao Jin, Yi Shanghui, Zha Wenting, Lv Yuan
Hunan Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology, Hunan Normal University Health Science Center, Changsha 410000, China.
Infectious Disease Early Warning and Decision Center, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
One Health. 2025 May 24;20:101088. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101088. eCollection 2025 Jun.
China has the highest incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) worldwide. This study examines the influences of meteorology, air pollution, and their interplay on HFRS cases, aiming to guide prevention and control strategies under varying meteorological conditions.
Data on daily HFRS cases, meteorology, and air pollutants in Hunan, 2012-2021, were collected. The effects of the mixed effects of meteorological and air pollutants on the incidence of HFRS were comprehensively evaluated by constructing a distributed hysteresis linear model (DLNM) and Bayesian nuclear machine regression (BKMR).
(1) The results of the DLNM revealed that when the wind speed (WS) = 1.9 m/s, HFRS had the lowest risk of onset (RR = 0.25). The risk of HFRS was highest on day 21 in the high WS group (RR = 1.12). (2) The results of the BKMR showed that, under medium- and low-temperature conditions, relative humidity (RH), sulfur dioxide (SO), and ozone (O) had the greatest impact (Posterior inclusion probabilities (PIP) = 1.0). (3) The combined effects of meteorological factors and atmospheric pollutants were positively correlated with the incidence of HFRS under medium and high temperature conditions, while the opposite was true for medium and low temperatures.
Meteorological factors and air pollutants have a lag effect on the incidence of HFRS. The combined effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants promote the pathogenesis and spread of HFRS. The higher the level of exposure to other studied factors at moderate and high temperatures, the greater the risk of HFRS. Thus, HFRS should be focused on and precautions should be specified in medium and high temperature environments.
中国是全球肾综合征出血热（HFRS）发病率最高的国家。本研究探讨气象因素、空气污染及其相互作用对HFRS病例的影响，旨在为不同气象条件下的防控策略提供指导。
收集2012 - 2021年湖南省HFRS每日病例、气象和空气污染物数据。通过构建分布滞后线性模型（DLNM）和贝叶斯核机器回归（BKMR）综合评估气象和空气污染物的混合效应对HFRS发病率的影响。
（1）DLNM结果显示，当风速（WS）= 1.9 m/s时，HFRS发病风险最低（RR = 0.25）。高风速组在第21天HFRS发病风险最高（RR = 1.12）。（2）BKMR结果表明，在中低温条件下，相对湿度（RH）、二氧化硫（SO）和臭氧（O）的影响最大（后验包含概率（PIP）= 1.0）。（3）气象因素和大气污染物的联合效应在中高温条件下与HFRS发病率呈正相关，而在中低温条件下则相反。
气象因素和空气污染物对HFRS发病率有滞后效应。气象因素和空气污染物的联合效应促进了HFRS的发病机制和传播。在中高温条件下，接触其他研究因素的水平越高，HFRS风险越大。因此，在中高温环境中应重点关注HFRS并制定预防措施。
