太空时代最大太阳粒子事件的癌症和循环系统疾病风险。
Cancer and circulatory disease risks for the largest solar particle events in the space age.
机构信息
Department of Health Physics and Diagnostic Sciences, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV, United States of America.
Department of Health Physics and Diagnostic Sciences, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV, United States of America.
出版信息
Life Sci Space Res (Amst). 2024 Feb;40:1-7. doi: 10.1016/j.lssr.2023.10.003. Epub 2023 Oct 31.
In this paper we use the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR version 2022) model to predict cancer and circulatory disease risks using energy spectra representing the largest SPE's observed in the space age. Because tissue dose-rates behind shielding for large SPE's lead to low dose-rates (<0.2 Gy/h) we consider the integrated risk for several historical periods of high solar activity, including July-November, 1960 events and August-October 1989 events along with the February 1956 and August 1972 events. The galactic cosmic ray (GCR) contribution to risks is considered in predictions. Results for these largest historical events show risk of exposure induced death (REID) are mitigated to < 1.2 % with a 95 % confidence interval with passive radiation shielding of 20 g/cm aluminum, while larger amounts would support the application of the ALARA principle. Annual GCR risks are predicted to surpass the risks from large SPEs by ∼30 g/cm of aluminum shielding.
在本文中，我们使用美国国家航空航天局（NASA）的太空癌症风险（NSCR 版本 2022）模型，使用代表太空时代观测到的最大空间事件（SPE）的能谱来预测癌症和循环系统疾病的风险。由于屏蔽后面的组织剂量率导致低剂量率（<0.2 Gy/h），我们考虑了几个历史时期的高太阳活动的综合风险，包括 1960 年 7 月至 11 月的事件和 1989 年 8 月至 10 月的事件，以及 1956 年 2 月和 1972 年 8 月的事件。在预测中考虑了银河宇宙射线（GCR）对风险的贡献。对于这些最大的历史事件，结果表明，通过使用 20 克/厘米的铝制被动辐射屏蔽，可以将暴露诱导死亡（REID）风险降低到置信区间的 95%以下<1.2%，而更大的屏蔽量则支持应用合理可行尽量低（ALARA）原则。通过 30 克/厘米的铝屏蔽，每年 GCR 的风险预计将超过来自大 SPE 的风险。
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