Liu YuXin, Lei Ping, Shen BingYang, He Dayi
School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (BEIJING), Beijing, 100083, China.
Industrial Bank of China Limited, Fuzhou Chengbei Sub-branch, Fuzhou, 350003, Fujian Province, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Jan 23;14(1):2004. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-51790-5.
In order to study the theoretical mechanism of the impact of green technology progress on carbon emissions, this article constructs a theoretical mechanism of the impact of green technology progress on carbon emission growth. Explore the conditions for achieving carbon peak and carbon reduction. Based on the Cobb Douglas production function, construct a three sector model that includes capital, labor, and energy. Empirical methods were used to analyze the quantitative impact of green technology progress on carbon emission growth and the moderating effect of energy input share. This study mainly used provincial panel data from 1995 to 2020. Calculate carbon dioxide emissions based on energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission coefficients of various energy sources in different regions. Using the perpetual inventory method to calculate capital growth rate, green computing progress rate, etc., to provide data support for the green technology carbon reduction model. Empirical analysis of the impact of green technology progress on carbon emissions using the FGLS panel model. Theoretical and empirical analyses show that green technological progress promotes an increase in the carbon emission growth rate through the scale effect, with an impact coefficient of 0.607; it promotes a decrease in the carbon emission growth rate through the technological effect, with an impact coefficient of - 0.667; the combined effect promotes a decrease in growth rate of carbon emissions, with an impact coefficient of - 0.06. The share of energy inputs has a positive regulating effect on the scale effect.
为研究绿色技术进步对碳排放影响的理论机制，本文构建绿色技术进步对碳排放增长影响的理论机制，探究实现碳达峰与碳减排的条件。基于柯布 - 道格拉斯生产函数，构建一个包含资本、劳动力和能源的三部门模型。运用实证方法分析绿色技术进步对碳排放增长的定量影响以及能源投入份额的调节作用。本研究主要使用1995年至2020年的省级面板数据，根据不同地区各类能源的能源消耗和二氧化碳排放系数计算二氧化碳排放量，采用永续盘存法计算资本增长率、绿色技术进步率等，为绿色技术减碳模型提供数据支持，运用可行广义最小二乘法（FGLS）面板模型对绿色技术进步对碳排放的影响进行实证分析。理论与实证分析表明，绿色技术进步通过规模效应促使碳排放增长率上升，影响系数为0.607；通过技术效应促使碳排放增长率下降，影响系数为 - 0.667；综合效应促使碳排放增长率下降，影响系数为 - 0.06。能源投入份额对规模效应具有正向调节作用。
