College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China.
Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Feb;31(10):15900-15919. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-32092-9. Epub 2024 Feb 3.
The long-term dynamic comprehensive evaluation of the water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) and the analysis of its potential driving mechanism in arid areas are contemporary research issues and technical means of mitigating and coordinating the conflict between severe resource shortages and human needs. The purpose of this study was to explore the distribution of the WRCC and the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of drivers in arid areas based on an improved two-dimensional spatiotemporal dynamic evaluation model. The results show that (1) the spatial distribution of the WRCC in Xinjiang, China, is high in the north, low in the south, high in the west, and low in the east. (2) From 2005 to 2020, the centers of gravity of the WRCC in northern and southern Xinjiang moved to the southeast and west, respectively, and the spatial distribution exhibited slight diffusion. (3) The factors influencing the WRCC exhibit more obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The domestic waste disposal rate and ecological water use rate were the main factors influencing the WRCC in the early stage, while the GDP per capita gradually played a dominant role in the later stage. (4) In the next 30 years, the WRCC in Xinjiang will increase. The results provide a theoretical reference for the sustainable development of water resources in arid areas.
水资源承载能力（WRCC）的长期动态综合评价及干旱区潜力驱动机制分析是缓解和协调严重资源短缺与人类需求之间矛盾的当代研究课题和技术手段。本研究旨在基于改进的二维时空动态评价模型，探讨干旱区 WRCC 的分布及其驱动因素的时空异质性。结果表明：（1）中国新疆 WRCC 的空间分布呈现北高南低、西高东低的特征。（2）2005-2020 年，南北疆 WRCC 重心分别向东南和西部移动，空间分布呈轻微扩散趋势。（3）影响 WRCC 的因素表现出更明显的时空异质性。早期，生活垃圾处理率和生态用水量是影响 WRCC 的主要因素，而后期人均 GDP 逐渐占据主导地位。（4）在未来 30 年内，新疆的 WRCC 将增加。研究结果为干旱区水资源的可持续发展提供了理论参考。
