Analysis of sustainable water resource management and driving mechanism in arid region: a case study of Xinjiang, China, from 2005 to 2020.

The long-term dynamic comprehensive evaluation of the water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) and the analysis of its potential driving mechanism in arid areas are contemporary research issues and technical means of mitigating and coordinating the conflict between severe resource shortages and human needs. The purpose of this study was to explore the distribution of the WRCC and the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of drivers in arid areas based on an improved two-dimensional spatiotemporal dynamic evaluation model. The results show that (1) the spatial distribution of the WRCC in Xinjiang, China, is high in the north, low in the south, high in the west, and low in the east. (2) From 2005 to 2020, the centers of gravity of the WRCC in northern and southern Xinjiang moved to the southeast and west, respectively, and the spatial distribution exhibited slight diffusion. (3) The factors influencing the WRCC exhibit more obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The domestic waste disposal rate and ecological water use rate were the main factors influencing the WRCC in the early stage, while the GDP per capita gradually played a dominant role in the later stage. (4) In the next 30 years, the WRCC in Xinjiang will increase. The results provide a theoretical reference for the sustainable development of water resources in arid areas.