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使用多状态Cormack-Jolly-Seber模型进行生存估计——以西班牙胡兀鹫为例

Survival Estimation Using Multistate Cormack-Jolly-Seber Models-The Case of the Bearded Vulture in Spain.

作者信息

Navarro Inmaculada, Farfán Miguel Ángel, Gil Juan Antonio, Muñoz Antonio Román

机构信息

Departament of Animal Biology, Faculty of Science, Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Teatinos, 29071 Malaga, Spain.

Fundación para la Conservación del Quebrantahuesos, 50001 Zaragoza, Spain.

出版信息

Animals (Basel). 2024 Jan 26;14(3):403. doi: 10.3390/ani14030403.

DOI:10.3390/ani14030403
PMID:38338045
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10854860/
Abstract

The bearded vulture () is an endangered species with a specialist osteophagous (bone) diet. We estimated the survival and productivity of this vulture in the Aragonese Pyrenees, where the main population of the species in Europe is found. We used a database covering a period of 33 years (1987-2020). To estimate the probability of survival, we used Cormack-Jolly-Seber models with a Bayesian approach. Our models estimated a survival rate of 0.90 ± 0.08 in juveniles, 0.95 ± 0.04 in subadults and 0.92 ± 0.05 in adults. The survival probability increased over the study period in adults and subadults but not in juveniles. By contrast, productivity decreased over the same period. Our study provides updated information on the status of two demographic parameters of great importance to the species and allows us to identify the most vulnerable age classes and to plan conservation actions to improve the situation of the species in a territory that is a donor of specimens for reintroduction projects. The estimated survival values suggest that more caution should be exercised when planning these feeding points according to the use the species makes of them.

摘要

胡兀鹫(Gypaetus barbatus)是一种濒危物种,以食骨(啃食骨头)为食。我们估算了这种兀鹫在阿拉贡比利牛斯山脉地区的存活率和繁殖率,该地区是欧洲该物种的主要栖息地。我们使用了一个涵盖33年(1987年至2020年)的数据库。为了估算存活率,我们采用贝叶斯方法的考马克-乔利-西伯模型。我们的模型估算出幼鸟的存活率为0.90±0.08,亚成鸟为0.95±0.04,成鸟为0.92±0.05。在研究期间,成鸟和亚成鸟的存活概率有所增加,但幼鸟没有。相比之下,繁殖率在同一时期有所下降。我们的研究提供了关于该物种两个至关重要的种群统计学参数状况的最新信息,使我们能够确定最脆弱的年龄组,并规划保护行动,以改善该物种在作为重新引入项目标本来源地的一个地区的生存状况。估算出的存活值表明,在根据该物种对这些投食点的利用情况来规划投食点时,应更加谨慎。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dbfa/10854860/7a66aaae8af8/animals-14-00403-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dbfa/10854860/b5261a076837/animals-14-00403-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dbfa/10854860/81cf98b32513/animals-14-00403-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dbfa/10854860/3ed72872230e/animals-14-00403-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dbfa/10854860/7a66aaae8af8/animals-14-00403-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dbfa/10854860/b5261a076837/animals-14-00403-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dbfa/10854860/81cf98b32513/animals-14-00403-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dbfa/10854860/3ed72872230e/animals-14-00403-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dbfa/10854860/7a66aaae8af8/animals-14-00403-g004.jpg

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Revisiting Cattle Temperament in Beef Cow-Calf Systems: Insights from Farmers' Perceptions about an Autochthonous Breed.重新审视肉牛母牛-犊牛养殖系统中的牛的性情:来自农民对一个本地品种认知的见解
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