Pyun Jong Hyun, Ko Young Hwii, Kim Sang Won, Son Nak-Hoon
Department of Urology, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul 03181, Republic of Korea.
Department of Urology, College of Medicine, Yeungnam University, Daegu 42114, Republic of Korea.
Cancers (Basel). 2024 Jan 24;16(3):503. doi: 10.3390/cancers16030503.
The current incidence of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, which plays a crucial role in detecting prostate cancer (PCa) in an aged population, is low in Korea. Reflecting these epidemiologic characteristics, we estimated the short- and long-term incidences of PCa. A regression equation model was extracted based on two critical pieces of information: (1) the distribution of newly detected PCa cases in each age group of the 50s, 60s, 70s, and over 80s from a recent period (2006-2020), and (2) the PSA testing rate (PSAr) from the previous decade (2006-2016) for each age subgroup. The incidence increased fourfold (4533 in 2006 to 16,815 in 2020), with each age subgroup accounting for 7.9% (50s), 31.4% (60s), 43.0% (70s), and 17.1% (over 80s) of cases in 2020. PSAr increased by an average of 1.08% annually. If these trends are maintained, 28,822 new cases will be diagnosed in 2030 (expected PSAr: 14.4%) and 40,478 cases in 2040 (expected PSAr: 26.4%). If a public PSA screening were implemented for men only in their 60s (assuming a PSAr of 60% in the 60s) and 70s (assuming a PSAr of 80% in the 70s) in 2030, 37,503 cases in 2030 (expected PSAr: 23.1%) and 43,719 cases in 2040 (expected PSAr: 29.9%) would be estimated. According to the projection, the incidence of PCa will increase twofold by 2034 compared to 2020. If national screening were only conducted in the 60s and 70s, a higher detection of almost threefold would be expected by 2040.
前列腺特异性抗原（PSA）检测在老年人群前列腺癌（PCa）检测中起着关键作用，目前在韩国的检测率较低。反映这些流行病学特征，我们估计了PCa的短期和长期发病率。基于两条关键信息提取了回归方程模型：（1）近期（2006 - 2020年）50多岁、60多岁、70多岁和80岁以上各年龄组新检测出的PCa病例分布情况，以及（2）前十年（2006 - 2016年）各年龄亚组的PSA检测率（PSAr）。发病率增长了四倍（2006年为4533例，2020年为16,815例），2020年各年龄亚组病例占比分别为7.9%（50多岁）、31.4%（60多岁）、43.0%（70多岁）和17.1%（80岁以上）。PSAr平均每年增长1.08%。如果维持这些趋势，2030年将诊断出28,822例新病例（预计PSAr：14.4%），2040年将诊断出40,478例（预计PSAr：26.4%）。如果2030年仅对60多岁（假设60多岁PSAr为60%）和70多岁（假设70多岁PSAr为80%）的男性实施公共PSA筛查，预计2030年将有37,503例（预计PSAr：23.1%），2040年将有43,719例（预计PSAr：29.9%）。根据预测，到2034年PCa发病率与2020年相比将增长两倍。如果仅在60多岁和70多岁人群中进行全国筛查，到2040年预计检测出的病例数将高出近三倍。
