Greil Arthur L, Wallace Desmond D, Passet-Wittig Jasmin, McQuillan Julia, Bujard Martin, Lowry Michele H
Division of Social Sciences, Alfred University, Alfred, NY, USA.
Family and Fertility Research Area, Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany.
Eur J Popul. 2024 Feb 12;40(1):8. doi: 10.1007/s10680-023-09692-1.
Proximate determinants theory considers infertility rates a risk factor for lower fertility rates, but the assumption that people who perceive infertility will have fewer children has not been tested. This study investigates the association of self-perceived infertility with the number of children people have had after 11 years. Infertility implies reduced chances of conception (rather than sterility), but people do not always consistently perceive infertility over time. If people who think they are infertile at one time can later report no infertility, then does self-perceived infertility necessarily lead to having fewer children? We answer this question by analyzing 11 waves of the German family panel (pairfam) data using negative binomial growth curve models for eight core demographic subgroups created by combinations of gender (men/women), parity (0/1+children), and initial age groups (25-27 and 35-37). Those who repeatedly perceived themselves to be infertile (three times or more) had fewer children than those who perceived themselves to be infertile once or twice in only four of eight gender by initial parity by age groups. Only in four groups did people who perceived themselves to be infertile once or twice have fewer children than those who never perceived themselves to be infertile in both the unadjusted and adjusted models. Thus, self-perceived infertility does not necessarily result in fewer children. Rather, the association depends upon life course context and gender.
近因决定因素理论认为不孕率是低生育率的一个风险因素,但认为认为自己不孕的人会生育更少子女的假设尚未得到验证。本研究调查了自我认知的不孕与人们在11年后生育子女数量之间的关联。不孕意味着受孕几率降低(而非不育),但人们对不孕的认知并不总是始终如一。如果曾经认为自己不孕的人后来报告没有不孕,那么自我认知的不孕是否必然导致生育更少子女呢?我们通过使用负二项式增长曲线模型分析德国家庭面板(pairfam)的11轮数据来回答这个问题,该模型针对由性别(男性/女性)、生育状况(0个/1个及以上子女)和初始年龄组(25 - 27岁和35 - 37岁)组合而成的八个核心人口亚组。在八个按初始生育状况、年龄分组的性别组合中,只有四个组合里,那些多次(三次或以上)认为自己不孕的人比那些认为自己不孕一两次的人生育的子女更少。在未经调整和调整后的模型中,只有在四个组中,那些认为自己不孕一两次的人比那些从未认为自己不孕的人生育的子女更少。因此,自我认知的不孕不一定会导致生育更少子女。相反,这种关联取决于人生历程背景和性别。