Gardner Alexandra S, Maclean Ilya M D, Rodríguez-Muñoz Rolando, Hopwood Paul E, Mills Kali, Wotherspoon Ross, Tregenza Tom
Centre for Ecology and Conservation University of Exeter Penryn Cornwall UK.
Environment and Sustainability Institute University of Exeter Penryn Cornwall UK.
Ecol Evol. 2024 Feb 13;14(2):e11019. doi: 10.1002/ece3.11019. eCollection 2024 Feb.
Ectotherms make up the majority of terrestrial biodiversity, so it is important to understand their potential responses to climate change. Often, models aiming to achieve this understanding correlate species distributions with ambient air temperature. However, this assumes a constant relationship between the air temperature and body temperature, which determines an ectotherm's thermal performance. To test this assumption, we develop and validate a method for retrospective estimation of ectotherm body temperature using heat exchange equations. We apply the model to predict the body temperature of wild field crickets () in Northern Spain for 1985-2019 and compare these values to air temperature. We show that while air temperature impacts ectotherm body temperature, it captures only a fraction of its thermal experience. Solar radiation can increase the body temperature by more than 20°C above air temperature with implications for physiology and behaviour. The effect of solar radiation on body temperature is particularly important given that climate change will alter cloud cover. Our study shows that the impacts of climate change on species cannot be assumed to be proportional only to changing air temperature. More reliable models of future species distributions require mechanistic links between environmental conditions and thermal ecophysiologies of species.
变温动物构成了陆地生物多样性的大部分，因此了解它们对气候变化的潜在反应很重要。通常，旨在实现这种理解的模型将物种分布与环境空气温度相关联。然而，这假定了空气温度与体温之间存在恒定关系，而体温决定了变温动物的热性能。为了检验这一假设，我们开发并验证了一种使用热交换方程对变温动物体温进行回顾性估计的方法。我们应用该模型预测了1985年至2019年西班牙北部野生田野蟋蟀（）的体温，并将这些值与气温进行比较。我们表明，虽然气温会影响变温动物的体温，但它只反映了其热体验的一小部分。太阳辐射可使体温比气温升高20°C以上，这对生理和行为有影响。考虑到气候变化将改变云量，太阳辐射对体温的影响尤为重要。我们的研究表明，不能假定气候变化对物种的影响仅与气温变化成比例。未来更可靠的物种分布模型需要环境条件与物种热生态生理学之间的机制联系。
