Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Nat Commun. 2023 Jul 20;14(1):4304. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1.
Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.
气候变化与物种分布范围的纬度和海拔变化都有关系。然而，气候变化在多大程度上与其他假定的驱动因素一起导致了最近的分布范围变化仍然不确定。在这里，我们利用 378 种欧洲繁殖鸟类在 30 年中的变化分布，探讨了最近分布范围动态的假定驱动因素，同时考虑了气候、土地覆盖、其他环境变量和物种特征对局部定居和灭绝概率的影响。平均而言，物种的分布范围每年变化 2.4 公里。然而，由于气候和土地覆盖的变化，这些变化与预期的情况有显著的不同。我们发现，局部定居和灭绝事件主要受到初始气候条件和物种分布范围特征的影响。相比之下，该时期内气候适宜性的变化则不那么重要。这突出表明，在预测物种分布范围的未来变化时，仅使用气候和土地覆盖存在局限性，并强调需要采用综合的多预测因子方法进行更可靠的预测。
Zotero 插件
