Musarat Muhammad Ali, Alaloul Wesam Salah, Liew M S
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Bandar Seri Iskandar, 32610, Perak, Malaysia.
Offshore Engineering Centre, Institute of Autonomous System, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Bandar Seri Iskandar, 32610, Perak, Malaysia.
Heliyon. 2024 Feb 8;10(4):e26037. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e26037. eCollection 2024 Feb 29.
Over time, the change in the inflation rate causes cost overruns by deviating the prices of goods and services in construction projects that require practitioners to make budgeting revisions. Hence, this study aims to develop a construction rates forecasting model that can incorporate the changing impact of the inflation rate on construction rates and predict the prices in a particular year, which can be adjusted when developing the Bill of Quantities. Following the time series analysis standards, a mathematical model was developed using MATLAB for forecasting. Construction rates, building prices, labour wages and machinery rates were forecasted from 2020 to 2025 based on the data collected from 2013 to 2019. Akaike information criterion was used to validate the self-developed construction rate forecasting model. It was revealed that the model yielded better results when the construction rates were compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average time series model results. The rates forecasting model may be used for any construction project where rates are affected by the inflation effect.
随着时间的推移，通货膨胀率的变化会导致建设项目中商品和服务价格偏离，从而导致成本超支，这就要求从业者进行预算修订。因此，本研究旨在开发一种建筑费率预测模型，该模型能够纳入通货膨胀率对建筑费率不断变化的影响，并预测特定年份的价格，以便在编制工程量清单时进行调整。按照时间序列分析标准，使用MATLAB开发了一个用于预测的数学模型。根据2013年至2019年收集的数据，对2020年至2025年的建筑费率、建筑价格、劳动力工资和机械费率进行了预测。使用赤池信息准则对自主开发的建筑费率预测模型进行验证。结果表明，与自回归积分滑动平均时间序列模型结果相比，该模型在建筑费率方面产生了更好的结果。费率预测模型可用于任何费率受通货膨胀影响的建设项目。
