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马来西亚半岛的热浪:时空分析

Heatwaves in Peninsular Malaysia: a spatiotemporal analysis.

作者信息

Muhammad Mohd Khairul Idlan, Hamed Mohammed Magdy, Harun Sobri, Sa'adi Zulfaqar, Sammen Saad Sh, Al-Ansari Nadhir, Shahid Shamsuddin, Scholz Miklas

机构信息

Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia.

Construction and Building Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), B 2401 Smart Village, Giza, 12577, Egypt.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Feb 21;14(1):4255. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-53960-x.

Abstract

One of the direct and unavoidable consequences of global warming-induced rising temperatures is the more recurrent and severe heatwaves. In recent years, even countries like Malaysia seldom had some mild to severe heatwaves. As the Earth's average temperature continues to rise, heatwaves in Malaysia will undoubtedly worsen in the future. It is crucial to characterize and monitor heat events across time to effectively prepare for and implement preventative actions to lessen heatwave's social and economic effects. This study proposes heatwave-related indices that take into account both daily maximum (Tmax) and daily lowest (Tmin) temperatures to evaluate shifts in heatwave features in Peninsular Malaysia (PM). Daily ERA5 temperature dataset with a geographical resolution of 0.25° for the period 1950-2022 was used to analyze the changes in the frequency and severity of heat waves across PM, while the LandScan gridded population data from 2000 to 2020 was used to calculate the affected population to the heatwaves. This study also utilized Sen's slope for trend analysis of heatwave characteristics, which separates multi-decadal oscillatory fluctuations from secular trends. The findings demonstrated that the geographical pattern of heatwaves in PM could be reconstructed if daily Tmax is more than the 95th percentile for 3 or more days. The data indicated that the southwest was more prone to severe heatwaves. The PM experienced more heatwaves after 2000 than before. Overall, the heatwave-affected area in PM has increased by 8.98 km/decade and its duration by 1.54 days/decade. The highest population affected was located in the central south region of PM. These findings provide valuable insights into the heatwaves pattern and impact.

摘要

全球变暖导致气温上升带来的直接且不可避免的后果之一,是热浪愈发频繁和严重。近年来,就连马来西亚这样的国家也很少出现一些轻度到重度的热浪。随着地球平均温度持续上升,马来西亚未来的热浪无疑会加剧。至关重要的是,要长期对热事件进行特征描述和监测,以便有效地做好准备并采取预防措施,减轻热浪的社会和经济影响。本研究提出了与热浪相关的指数,该指数同时考虑日最高温度(Tmax)和日最低温度(Tmin),以评估马来西亚半岛(PM)热浪特征的变化。利用1950 - 2022年期间地理分辨率为0.25°的每日ERA5温度数据集,分析整个马来西亚半岛热浪频率和严重程度的变化,同时使用2000年至2020年的LandScan网格化人口数据来计算受热浪影响的人口。本研究还利用森斜率对热浪特征进行趋势分析,将多年代振荡波动与长期趋势区分开来。研究结果表明,如果日最高温度连续3天或更长时间超过第95百分位数,就能重建马来西亚半岛热浪的地理模式。数据表明,西南部更容易出现严重热浪。2000年之后,马来西亚半岛经历的热浪比之前更多。总体而言,马来西亚半岛受热浪影响的面积以每十年8.98平方公里的速度增加,其持续时间以每十年1.54天的速度增加。受影响人口最多的地区位于马来西亚半岛中南部。这些发现为热浪模式及其影响提供了有价值的见解。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5b63/10882015/ceb18315276e/41598_2024_53960_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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