Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Department of Clinical Research Management, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Feb 21;14(1):4327. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-54945-6.
This study aimed to assess the therapeutic effect of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) and investigate the correlation between surrogate endpoints and overall survival (OS). A systematic literature search included phase I, II, and III clinical trials comparing ICIs to placebo or other therapies for uHCC treatment. Correlations between OS and surrogate endpoints were evaluated using meta-regression analyses and calculating the surrogate threshold effect (STE). The correlation analysis showed a weak association between OS and progression-free survival (PFS), with an R value of 0.352 (95% CI: 0.000-0.967). However, complete response (CR) exhibited a strong correlation with OS (R = 0.905, 95% CI: 0.728-1.000). Subgroup analyses revealed high correlations between OS and PFS, CR, stable disease (SD), and DC in phase III trials (R: 0.827-0.922). For the ICI + IA group, significant correlations were observed between OS and SD, progressive disease (PD), and grade 3-5 immune-related adverse events (irAEs) (R: 0.713-0.969). Analyses of the correlation between survival benefit and risk of mortality across various time points showed a strong association within the first year (R: 0.724-0.868) but a weak association beyond one year (R: 0.406-0.499). In ICI trials for uHCC, PFS has limited utility as a surrogate endpoint for OS, while CR exhibits a strong correlation with OS. Subgroup analyses highlight high correlations between OS and PFS, SD, and DC in phase III trials. Notably, the ICI + IA group shows significant associations between OS and SD, PD, and grade 3-5 irAEs. These findings offer valuable insights for interpreting trial outcomes and selecting appropriate endpoints in future clinical studies involving ICIs for uHCC patients.
本研究旨在评估免疫检查点抑制剂(ICIs)在不可切除肝细胞癌(uHCC)患者中的治疗效果,并探讨替代终点与总生存期(OS)之间的相关性。系统文献检索包括比较 ICIs 与安慰剂或其他治疗方法治疗 uHCC 的 I 期、II 期和 III 期临床试验。使用荟萃回归分析和计算替代终点阈值效应(STE)评估 OS 与替代终点之间的相关性。相关性分析显示 OS 与无进展生存期(PFS)之间存在弱相关性,R 值为 0.352(95%CI:0.000-0.967)。然而,完全缓解(CR)与 OS 呈强相关性(R=0.905,95%CI:0.728-1.000)。亚组分析显示,III 期试验中 OS 与 PFS、CR、稳定疾病(SD)和疾病控制(DC)之间存在高度相关性(R:0.827-0.922)。对于 ICI+IA 组,OS 与 SD、进展性疾病(PD)和 3-5 级免疫相关不良事件(irAEs)之间存在显著相关性(R:0.713-0.969)。对不同时间点生存获益与死亡率之间的相关性分析显示,第一年(R:0.724-0.868)内存在强相关性,而一年后(R:0.406-0.499)相关性较弱。在 uHCC 的 ICI 试验中,PFS 作为 OS 的替代终点的效用有限,而 CR 与 OS 呈强相关性。亚组分析强调了 III 期试验中 OS 与 PFS、SD 和 DC 之间的高度相关性。值得注意的是,ICI+IA 组 OS 与 SD、PD 和 3-5 级 irAEs 之间存在显著相关性。这些发现为解释试验结果和在未来涉及 uHCC 患者的 ICIs 的临床研究中选择合适的终点提供了有价值的见解。
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